Intel shares have jumped nearly 30% over the past month after reports of a possible U.S. government stake and a $2 billion investment from SoftBank, pushing the chipmaker’s valuation back to dot‑com bubble levels. The stock now trades at about 53 times expected earnings for the next 12 months, the highest reading since early 2002, according to Bloomberg data.

"The shares look incredibly expensive. This kind of multiple is a bet that the government will pressure Intel’s customers so hard that it becomes the winner," said Wayne Kaufman, chief market analyst at Phoenix Financial Services. Reports say President Donald Trump’s administration has discussed acquiring up to a 10% stake, which could make the U.S. the company’s largest shareholder. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick indicated any government stakes would likely be non‑voting, and Lutnick has suggested the idea could extend to other chipmakers tied to CHIPS Act grants.

Bloomberg expects Intel to generate adjusted profit exceeding $1 billion over the next four quarters after a roughly $1.3 billion loss in the prior four. From 2018–2021 the company averaged more than $20 billion in annual profit. Analysts remain cautious: under 8% of analysts tracked by Bloomberg rate the stock a buy and nearly 80% are neutral. "We have no idea what Intel can achieve in earnings growth, because it lags in technology, and growth doesn’t come from cutting costs," said Nancy Tengler of Laffer Tengler Investments. Paul Nolte of Murphy & Sylvest Wealth Management added that a government stake could help short‑term but pose long‑term risks. CEO Lip‑Bu Tan’s cost‑cutting has improved the path back to profitability but has also raised concerns about a retreat from technological leadership. Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC. #INTC #FiatNews