Good post! What do you think the MicroStrategy base business is worth, should be valued at when trying to do the math here? I’ve been using $1.2B but am curious your thoughts?
No surprise, $MSTR issued more stock to do it. (See below.)
This was the right move as the stock has been trading at a high premium above its #bitcoin holdings, higher than the operating company is worth. ($MSTR should trade at a premium above its bitcoin holdings as hr operating company also has value, the question is how much.)
I believe nostr:npub15dqlghlewk84wz3pkqqvzl2w2w36f97g89ljds8x6c094nlu02vqjllm5m is laser eye focused on one metric: *sats per share.* He’ll do anything that doesn’t threaten the stack to increase it.
IMO, he’s a brilliant capital allocator.
This is why I had my mom buy some MSTR shares back when the stock was trading at the price of the bitcoin plus $8 for the operating company. It’s was a steal. Since then both Bitcoin and the MSTR premium have soared.
Now, if only Saylor can enter into a tiny loan he uses to buy bitcoin. Then when Bitcoin goes down & every lazy person who can’t be bothered to understand the loan agreement thinks MSTR is going to default pushes the stock to a large discount, he *buys back* shares and demonstrate to Wall Street what real capital allocation looks like.
When Bitcoin tanked, and as a result MSTR tanked because lazy people thought MSTR was at risk of defaulting on the Silvergate Loan, I moved my GBTC into MSTR & netted a bunch of sats. I’ve since moved back into GBTC, then OBTC, and then back into GBTC again netting me a bunch more sats.
I’m waiting for the MSTR premium to come back down to move out of GBTC into MSTR which is, all things being equal, the better play. (No fee, an operating company that will keep generating free cash flow to stack more sats, and one of the best capital allocators in the business.)
My guess is the divergence between the GBTC discount and the MSTR premium closes when a Bitcoin spot etf gets approved/launched. So that’s what I’m keeping my laser eyed focus on. 
nostr:note1pk7c7gqws528u8kgrnfefx0yljnhh7m49v3nnu6xca8l5f03wevslfrpd5
Discussion
Ive been working on this and ultimately think that’s very high. But I price things in bitcoin. I wouldn’t pay 27,397 bitcoin for the operating company separate from the Bitcoin holdings (and whatever business flows out of the Bitcoin holdings & Saylor’s knowledge of bitcoin. I kinda treat that as an out of the money option if he starts a very successful Lightning business or something like that).