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Since last year, we have much more clarity on the tail end of this move. The minimum became $95-100k. We got that now.

That means the entire 14yr move COULD be over.

There's still a chance of a near term exhaustive push to $100-130k to top after a drop back to $80k. But its very very very high risk on long term charts because again, we fulfilled all minimum target requirements at the known end of a move.

halalmoney 1y ago

The level of conviction I detect amongst Bitcoiners means suggests they will keep on stacking regardless.

But it will be painful if you are right.

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Discussion

CappyNate🍁 1y ago

That's precisely why such a low level is required. A market's goal is to shake out conviction.

$100k shakes out permabear conviction.

But $80k, $50k, even $30k will not shake bullish conviction.

It will take deep levels. When all bulls throw in the towel, THEN we re-buy. And MSTR bankruptcy may very well be a marker for that (like FTX was).

I'm working on alternate all-time counts. The only bullish count I can find breaks 2 EW rules so it's considered invalid. I need to look harder. I can find 2 valid bearish counts that each point to corrections of 70% to 90%. It's really dangerous here.

halalmoney 1y ago

“It's really dangerous here.”