Institutions are sucking out the premium with futures, options and stonks. There is a lot of paper bitcoin reducing real demand. The cycle tracks almost identical to 2021 with less amplitude. That’s why we barely got 100% from previous peak unfortunately that doesn’t stop us from getting a bear market. There is a lot of misconception on the idea of institutional buying is “long only”.
Discussion
Correct.
I’d be surprised yet ecstatic by a 40k low though
I don’t really like price predictions in either direction because they are mostly misleading and misguided. But I think 38-50K range is a reasonable expectation 60-70% drawdown based on how sharply we have already sold off since peak. Seems entirely possible by the end of the bear.