The good thing about scenario analysis is that we can prepare for all 4 scenarios, have a strategy for each and then assign probabilities to each, which we can adjust as more data is gathered.

For example, I currently assign 60% to S1 "America". I expect Bitcoin adoption to continue to grow following the S-curve. I also expect US regulators to become more friendly to Bitcoin over time.

However if in 2025 we see the number of Bitcoin users stop growing or even declining or if we see regulators considerably change their stance and rhetoric after the US elections... I would have to adjust this estimated probability.