Bitcoin's return on investment (ROI) metrics reveal important patterns that can help with understanding market cycles. The 365-day running ROI (one-year Return-Of-Investment) shows how Bitcoin is valued compared to 1 year ago, and this metric has been particularly insightful for analyzing the current market cycle. The current Bitcoin cycle appears to be a hybrid of previous patterns. Initially, it followed structural similarities to the 2016-2017 cycle, but later began resembling the 2019 cycle, particularly in its post-halving behavior. This shift may be related to monetary policy influences, as 2025 might parallel 2019 in terms of Federal Reserve policies.

Interestingly, Bitcoin has found a lot of support around the area whenever the 90-day ROI is sitting at about a 25% loss. There has been plenty of times where Bitcoin finds support around this level. You could argue that when this support level breaks, it often signals a transition into a bear market phase. Similar patterns can be observed in Bitcoin's weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI), where certain support levels have proven critical for gauging market health.