Also consider the onchain cost required to open and close (cooperatively or even forced) a channel, these costs will have to be amortized across each routed payment.

It seems to me, that using base money will always occur higher demurrage costs than using a money substitute. Thus bitcoin backed ecash is the already deployed short term solution that gets us to scalable and affordable anonymous transactions.

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Yes, a reasonable viewpoint. We've yet to see a full fledged success in ecash tokens, though. I'm still skeptical about that.