I’m sceptical that AI runs away into a vertical singularity.

I’m expecting it to scale horizontally rather than vertically. Although I never see anyone talking / thinking about it like this.

People are still stuck in the framework of IQ is a vertical scalar, therefore all intelligence will scale vertically as IQ does.

Even though we have learnt this is not the case at all when building enterprise level applications.

The tech industry still can’t see the wood for the trees. Wrt AI. Repeating all the vertical scaling assumptions / mistakes of the 1990’s.

Generalisation won’t be achieved with a vertical monolith. It will be achieved through massive parallelisation of discrete specialisations.

ie horizontally and not vertically.

I built large industrial AI models to make physical world predictions from petabytes of laser interferometry data and there were massive strategic learnings from doing that.

I still never see anyone else in public thinking and understanding the space as strategically as we were in 2018. I presume people somewhere have a handle on this, but it’s all behind closed doors. Much of the public consensus is just flat wrong, we went through all the same learnings 5 years ago.

There are some big surprises on the road ahead. Lots of capital is going to be misallocated.