What am I missing here? Seems it would be flat ev with a symmetric gain/loss distribution
Discussion
Guess I’d need to know more about the betting strategy assumed. Shouldn’t be able to lose more than your bet too, and I understand the risk of ruin component can “smush” the bottom since no free spins 😆
An initial 5% loss will reduce a balance more than a subsequent 5% gain so there's an inherent bias towards losing money when trading.
$10,000 * 0.95 = $9,500
$9,500 * 1.05 = $9,975
Think I see what you did. I was assuming something like 1% stack bet daily and run simulation daily, do again. Where the return is normally distributed (except floor of -100%/total loss) and put back in stack. Still prob need to think on it more