I’m not sure how some folks can make the case that OGs unloading their bitcoins is bullish for the price. Due to its non-linear emission, the #Bitcoin supply became quite concentrated among early adopters. The original vision was that nobody would need to sell their #BTC for fiat but because Bitcoin has failed to be broadly adopted as a medium of exchange, OGs have no choice but to exchange part of their stack for fiat which puts pressure on the price.
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Much more important is that they lost faith in the future of BTC.
"The original vision was that nobody would need to sell their #BTC for fiat but because Bitcoin has failed to be broadly adopted as a medium of exchange"
Original vision, of whom ?
Next that statement is contradicting itself and you explained why yourself !
"Due to its non-linear emission"
In the early days, was #Bitcoin mostly talked as being electronic money or a reserve asset?
I’m not sure what my statement is contradictory with what. I certainly could have made my point clearer though.
1) The Bitcoin supply is highly concentrated in the hands of a few partly due to its exponential decay distribution.
2) because of the lack of adoption as a medium-of-exchange, the best mean for OGs looking to cash out is to convert their #BTC for fiat which remains the best MoE.
3) this combination is likely to cap the price of Bitcoin for many years in what would be the biggest distribution phase ever seen by Bitcoin.
Some have called for Bitcoin entering an IPO moment which is a fallacious analogy as Bitcoin has been accessible to retail since day 1. It’s actually a key difference with stock that goes through an IPO phase which distributes from insiders to retail. In the case of Bitcoin, the distribution phase goes the other way from retail to institutions. Distribution phase are not bullish no matter who distributes to who.
#Trading #Tradestr
P2P electronic cash
Distribution doest end till long after we dead in ~2140 ish
Price discovery will happen till fiat is dead at btc isn’t priced in fiat.
I can’t tell if you’re trolling or being serious here.
Because of the exponential decay distribution of the BTC issuance the role of new issuance in this distribution phase is insignificant in comparison to the distribution of the already mined and strongly concentrated supply.
I don’t know for sure what the future hold for the price of #Bitcoin and maybe the price discovery phase will continue but I’m afraid it won’t be until a large distribution phase has played out first.
Fiat has all the problems we know about but it’s still the king medium-of-exchange. I take no joy in saying that but it’s just an obvious fact (ask anyone who’s not a Bitcoin maxi and you’ll see).
The error of judgement that many have made about Bitcoin is to believe that not catching up as a medium-of-exchange against fiat would have no negative impact on the store-of-value property in the long run. We can now see that OGs being forced to sell #BTC for fiat rather than circulating their holding in the economy is the dynamic that is going to put a lid on the price appreciation for probably what will be an extended period of time.
#Trading #Tradestr
Mining block rewards is the distribution phase…
Yes first movers have a huge advantage here…
As more fiat is created Bitcoin will go up in price…
Until fiat implodes btc will be priced in fiat…
We are so early we will probably be dead by the time bitcoin is actually used more then fiat…
Much less discovered the actual price of bitcoin…
Just look at how long golds price has been low… and still is given the amount of fiat inflation
I’m not saying that Bitcoin is done going up forever. Yes, over the long run it will continue to go up against fiat assuming that Bitcoin can upgrade to quantum safe cryptography in time. But as long as OGs are not done distributing in the current price range, the price will be capped whether or not more fiat are printed. How long will this phase last is anyone guess, but it could take longer than most expect. I think years rather than months. We shall see…
Imho the sooner the ogs who have huge stacks sell the better… they already did their part to help boot strap the network…
Square enables the sell off.
Interesting. I had not caught up with this news. Theoretically, if a large portion of merchants accept BTC-to-BTC or fiat-to-BTC payments it should positive for the price but if they choose BTC-to-fiat then yes, it would create more sell pressure. I’m not sure how much impact on the price this integration may have had already.