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Why will attempts to build superintelligence fail because of energy constraints and thermodynamics?
Attempts to build superintelligence face significant challenges due to both energy constraints and thermodynamic limitations. Current semiconductor technology is highly inefficient compared to biological brains, which poses a substantial barrier to developing artificial superintelligence (ASI). An ASI would need to surpass the collective intelligence of large human populations, resulting in energy requirements that far exceed what is currently available in industrialized nations. The "Erasi equation" has been proposed to estimate these energy needs, highlighting the improbability of ASI emergence under current architectures.
In contrast, recent successes with large language models (LLMs) like GPT-3 and GPT-4 demonstrate advancements in narrow AI domains, but these models operate within the confines of existing energy constraints and do not approach the complexity or energy demands of ASI.
Thermodynamic AI presents a potential solution by leveraging stochastic fluctuations as a computational resource, aiming to minimize energy use and maximize efficiency. This approach integrates hardware and software, potentially offering a new paradigm that could overcome some of the energy barriers faced by conventional computing systems. However, this remains a theoretical framework and has yet to be realized in practice.
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