Subnostr

He forgets the impact of the supply changing every 4 years demand is only half the equation, supply is the other half. The halvening drives the 4 year cycle, not demand. I don’t think the 4 year cycle is dead I think it’s still hopium.

Brisket 9mo ago

I think the new supply is having less of an impact on price. New supply to be issued is such a small fraction of the total supply in circulation.

I think there's also validity to the impact of global liquidity cycles has had on Bitcoin's price in prior cycles.

In terms of supply & demand impacting Bitcoin's price, I think we're moving into an era where demand plays a much bigger role. Demand is increasing exponentially from new adoption.

Everything about Bitcoin seems bullish right now except for the price. I just hope that this is from OGs selling rather than custodians/exchanges doing dodgy shit.

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Discussion

2Pac 9mo ago

I think you are correct but I think it is going to happen later. I don’t think the 4 year cycle is dead yet. I still think we have a couple cycles before it happens. Maybe this one will be muted down a bit but I think it largely depends on if we have a big blow off top this cycle or not. Q4 will tell us a lot.

Brisket 9mo ago

Yeah - there's so many curve balls that could occur.

My suspicion is that the epoch 5 & 6 will see exponential growth more similar to the early cycles.

Diminishing returns theory will be destroyed.

Best strategy IMO is to stay humble & stack sats (if you can).

2Pac 9mo ago

Absolutely I’m very bullish long term, I just think it may take a bit longer to play out than some. Maybe it’s because so many were saying SUPERCYCLE last epoch and we know how that went. Bitcoin is still the best play no matter how you slice it.

Brisket 9mo ago

Yeah last cycle sucked balls. I think many got more hurt being too bullish, than they'd care to admit. I think many still have PTSD from it.

The SuPeRcycLe playing out this epoch, still feels quite unpopular.

I think many will sell too much too soon this cycle because of shit that happened last cycle.

TheGrinder 8mo ago

it isn't dead.

TheGrinder 8mo ago

what they're also saying is, they do not care about the outstanding supply since 95% is generated and 5% will take over 120 years to get minted. NOW is the time for wall street to get involved, buy as much of the circulating supply as they possible can and then do with Bitcoin whatever they feel like.

Let's not forget that exchanges only have ~2 million coins liquidity. It's peanuts and a crook's dream