My honest opinion? You'll lose.
Long term (say 2034) I'm obviously of the same opinion as you. Even more, I don't even believe long term ETH will outperform the USD.
But in 12-ish months, I think it's more likely than not that it has a higher return than BTC.
The reason why I can say this while being consistently BTC-only and not touching ETH with a 3 foot pole is that I don't like "trading". Too much work that detracts from real work and life. I prefer to invest very long term -- buy and forget. And in that mindset there simply isn't an option other than BTC. Plus, it doubles as store of wealth. So it's a no-brainer, really.
I’m genuinely interested in learning and would like to ask you:
1. Why do you think ETH performed between 2020-2021?
2. Why did other alt coins see a banana run in that time period? What causes this? #nostr
Excess liquidity in the system. That's happening again imminently. If Kamala wins, we'll have PRINTER GO BRRRRR. If Trump wins, on top of that, we will have CRYPTO GO BRRRRO.
The way it has worked historically is that BTC is pushed up and to the right by all that monetary debasement, and when investors kind of get tired of it, it overflows to ETH and the others. I believe that given those conditions, it will happen again, because that's a behavior that stems from human nature and psychology themselves.
The reason why ETH will outperform BTC is simply that it's market cap is smaller. So it can do larger percent gains with a smaller cash inflow.
