After 2036 the Bitcoin block reward will no longer play a role, the only thing that counts then is vbyte/sat fees.

With that information on mind we can do a simple calculation:

300 EH/s currently that support the network to fight for the approx. 6.4BTC.

so 300 EH / 6.4 BTC == 46.875 EH/BTC

In 2036 assuming the same distribution (mining pools and so)

300 EH / 0.4 BTC == 750.0 EH/BTC

So mining now till 2036 is ultra profitable if you do not need to sell BTC and can keep all more than 0.4 BTC per block you mine.

If you are a miner and you have to sell more than (6.4 BTC - 0.4BTC=) 6 BTC it means your BTC holdings decrease over time and you are already mining at a loss in satoshi terms. (This 6 BTC include all HW, maintenance, defects, electricity, infra, people, salarys, insurance , new miners, new hardware, advancements, etc.).

Every halving will make it much more (2x ) difficult for you to keep up and keep a positive mining to satoshi balance...

So in 2024 this will even go lower, meaning your budget per block mined has a maximum of 2.8 BTC in total cost!

So in my view BTC mining will without increase in efficiency plato out after 2026 ... At this point Miners are in a bubble territory (in satoshi terms) and have to sell more than they get...

All this leave anything related to USD out... This is purely based on mining and keeping as many sats as possible. None of this big mining pools will be able to compete with private small miners that use completely free electricity where ever they get that.