China is tumbling.... They are in serious population and economic troubles. Less than 5% growth including their massive stimulus? Yikes.
Discussion
Albeit true, this lacks context by ignoring ratios when comparing external debt to other Western nations.
Zeihan is a state propagandist that has been gaslighting Americans for years for them to stay in their cabins while the Titanic goes down.
His prognosis on ₿itcoin going to zero was the tell.
His job is to keep people calm before ‘The Great Taking’ begins.
I have never read or seen him, can't comment. I am merely saying China is in some serious pain in the next 20 years.
Their issue is unlike england, US, even Japan in the 80s, obody wants their trash currency. Nobody trusts them to be good actors.
Without being the global reserve currency or a key ally of one, they will never successfully make it to the next phase in their economy. They will likely fail to become non-industrialized, farming and manufacturing.
They don't have amazing land or soil, they are having issues of being overpopulated and killing their people in cities, and now they are sitting empty in giant deaths as the people are staying rural and even returning.
Their best bet is tech manufacturing, but that's a small sunset of global needs.
What you’re ultimately seeing is the death of the Bretton Woods- Petrodollar based system from which every country has been apart of.
A debt jubilee will come in the form of a new Bretton Woods where major players like China and U.S. will resettle debts and establish a new pecking order based on a chosen reserve currency. (Gold or Bitcoin)
Bear in mind that a Chinese debt collapse is actually an existential threat to the U.S. which could spell the end of a dollar reserve system.
However, China has proven repeatedly to reestablish themselves throughout history more than any other country. Let’s put this under the Lindy Effect.
The economic foibles you reference are derivatives or micro analyses. If you integrate the macro trends, you’ll see that China is poised to assume hegemony in 10-20 years akin to U.S. taking the reigns from the U.K.
Reference Ray Dalio’s “The Changing World Order”. Given Bridgewater’s success as the largest and most influential hedge fund globally, I’d put my money their analysis that China is likely to supersede.
I would also add, we have exactly zero idea on China's debt and GDP. It's all games, currency devals and nonsense with the CCP.