LUNCUSDT.P: In-depth Trend Analysis and Strategy Today by Lina Engword⚡📉
Hello fellow traders! I'm back with an in-depth analysis of LUNCUSDT.P today. Let's see the current situation and how we can strategize our trades.
LUNCUSDT.P: In-depth Trend Analysis and Strategy Today by Lina Engword⚡
Data as of: April 5, 2025, 16:27 (Bangkok Time)
Current Price: 0.00005883
Previous Weekly High (PWH): 0.00006855
Previous Weekly Low (PWL): 0.00005846
Recent Market Overview:
LUNCUSDT.P is currently moving in an interesting range, with the current price near the PWL, which could indicate a significant support level. However, we still need to be cautious of potential selling pressure. Analyzing multiple timeframes will give us a clearer overall picture.
Technical Trend Analysis:
- Short-term Timeframe (15m, 1H): On the 15m TF, we observe a CHoCH Bullish formation, suggesting a potential short-term price reversal to the upside. However, on the 1H TF, the price remains below the EMA 50 and EMA 200, indicating a short to medium-term downtrend. Additionally, we haven't seen a clear BoS Bullish signal on the 1H TF.
- Medium-term Timeframe (4H): The price remains significantly below the EMA 50 and EMA 200, and there are no strong CHoCH Bullish or BoS Bullish signals. This keeps the trend on the 4H TF bearish.
- Long-term Timeframe (Day): On the Daily TF, the price is also trading below the EMA 50 and EMA 200, and there are no clear reversal signals.
Comparison of Indicator Trends:
- Aligned Trends (Mostly Bearish in Medium and Long Term): The medium and long-term price targets have a higher probability of moving downwards to test lower support levels.
- Divergent Trends (Short-term Bullish Signal but Weak): The CHoCH Bullish on the 15m TF might lead to a short-term rebound, but if it fails to break through significant resistance, there's a possibility of a move back down.
- Rationale: Despite the Bullish signal on the 15m TF, the main trend on the higher timeframes remains bearish. Short-term Long trades should be approached cautiously with clear profit targets, while Short trades might have an advantage upon confirmation on higher timeframes.
- Trend Summary:
- Short-term: Sideways to Bullish (45% probability)
- Medium-term: Bearish (70% probability)
- Long-term: Bearish (75% probability)
- Today: Potential for a slight upward swing in the short term, but overall selling pressure remains (Sideways Down 60% probability).
Recommended Trading Strategies:
Based on the current situation, I recommend waiting for clear signals on your preferred timeframe and emphasizing strict risk management.
- For Short-term Traders: Await confirmation of buying pressure after the CHoCH Bullish on the 15m TF. If the price breaks out above significant resistance on the 15m or 1H TF with volume, consider a Long position with targets at the next resistance levels. However, if the breakout fails and a Bearish signal emerges, exercise caution and consider a Short position upon clear confirmation.
- For Medium-term Traders: Monitor any rebounds to test significant resistance levels. If Bearish Price Action occurs at these resistance points, or if the price fails to break above the EMA 50 or EMA 200 on the 4H TF, consider a Short position with targets at the next support levels.
- For Long-term Traders: Continue to wait for clear reversal signals on the Daily TF. The price remaining below the EMA 200 indicates that the downtrend is still strong.
Key Support and Resistance Levels to Watch:
- Support: 0.00005846 (PWL), (Identify other significant support levels based on SMC and Liquidity in the charts)
- Resistance: (Identify significant resistance levels based on EMA, SMC, and Liquidity in the charts)
Example Daily Trade Setup:
Example 1 (Focus on Short-term Confirmation):
- Enter: Wait for a pullback to a potential Bullish OB on the 15m TF (if it appears) and a confirming Bullish Price Action signal.
- TP: The first resistance on the 15m TF or the nearest Sellside Liquidity.
- SL: Below the Low of the Bullish OB or slightly below the Low formed before the Bullish Price Action signal.
- RRR: Consider based on support and resistance levels.
- Rationale: We will wait for the price to pull back to a significant zone and for a confirmation signal that buying pressure has returned before entering a Long position to reduce risk.
Example 2 (Consider Short if Resistance Breakout Fails):
- Enter: If the price rallies towards a significant resistance level on the 1H TF (such as the EMA 50 or a Bearish OB) and a clear Bearish Price Action signal forms.
- TP: The first support level on the 1H TF or the nearest Buyside Liquidity.
- SL: Slightly above the High of the Bearish Price Action signal.
- RRR: Consider based on support and resistance levels.
- Rationale: If the price fails to break through significant resistance and a Bearish signal appears, we will consider entering a Short position with a profit target at the next support level.
Example 3 (Waiting for Signals at PWL):
- Enter: Observe price action around the PWL (0.00005846). If a strong Bullish Price Action signal appears on the 15m or 1H TF.
- TP: The first resistance level on the 15m or 1H TF.
- SL: Slightly below the Low formed before the Bullish Price Action signal.
- RRR: Consider based on support and resistance levels.
- Rationale: PWL is a significant support level. A Bullish signal forming around this area could indicate a potential short-term reversal to the upside.
Disclaimer: This analysis is a personal opinion and should not be considered investment advice. Investors should conduct further research and make decisions with caution.
Wishing you all the best in your trading today! See you again in the next analysis!
Lina Engword