My Learnings: #37

Over fifteen plus years managing global pharmaceutical supply chains, I honed my scenario analysis skills, modeling risks that could disrupt the horizon. Early in my career, a seasoned leader—vibrant, not jaded—shared a nugget of wisdom: “The worst-case scenario always happens.” He’d witnessed promising drugs fail late in development, leaving factories idle; “sure-win” legal battles collapse unexpectedly; and rosy sales forecasts fizzle, stranding excess capacity. He wasn’t dismissing our work but highlighting a truth: outcomes aren’t symmetrically distributed around the base case—they skew heavily downward. My own experience bore this out. Optimistic surprises were rare (and we capitalized on them), but reality typically hugged the baseline or sank lower, with worst-case scenarios unfolding often. This lens applies beyond work—to life itself. It’s not about pessimism, but pragmatism. People around me dreamed of grand plans, only to lament “bad luck” when they faltered, not realizing their expectations defied probability. Life isn’t cursed; it’s just weighted toward the mundane or worse. Embracing this doesn’t dim your spirit—it sharpens your planning, spurs extra effort to tilt the odds, and softens the sting of setbacks. When rare wins arrive, they shine brighter against the odds.