Thesis: As #bitcoin's inflation rate programmatically approaches zero, and relatively few coins remain unissued, the halvenning's impact on price decreases.

Sorry. Don't shoot the messenger. I know how much we all love to lean into halvennings and the 4-year cycle. But this reality is a feature, not a bug -- ie, ultimately, there are no halvennings. We are being weaned off inflation, by design.

So, as more and more coins are issued, the halvenning represents less of a supply shock, and we have seen declining price appreciation in each successive 4-year halvening cycle.

For those interested in predicting the exchange rate to fiat, we might want an increasing focus on changes to a) bitcoin adoption, and b) levels of fiat debasement.

We might also focus on levels of paper bitcoin -- i.e., if bitcoin is increasingly fractionally reserved, effectively it increases supply, which suppresses the exchange rate relative to fiat, acting as an offset to higher adoption or fiat debasement.