Subnostr

Folks making Bitcoin predictions, as folks do.

I FIRMLY believe they need to be grounded in reality.

Understand what a Total Addressable Market (TAM) is and start "big picture."

Let's say total global wealth is $900T. Some old estimates put it there. That's ALL WEALTH.

It's unreasonable to think 50% of that is monetary premium that Bitcoin can eat.

So what's a reasonable share? Divide THAT by 21 million to get a price.

Don't just pull a hopium price out of your ass.

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If you took $900T/21 Million Bitcoin, the price per coin is less than $43 million.

The people (most) that spout billions or trillions per coin generally have no idea how much devaluation/inflation pain is required to get there.

And no concept that you can't eat 100% of total global wealth.

5% gets you to over $2,000,000 a coin

Reasonable. Grounded.

21M might not change, but $900T will. Both in value and in figure.

That's why I leave it to each user to state their assumptions.

But if we're going to inflate to quintillions, it's going to hurt. Bad.

And without a somewhat reasonable share of the pie, it's pixie dust.