In about 5 yrs, we’ll hear this term a lot: “we dont know how to price bitcoin.” its true, because we actually don’t know how to price bitcoin because we never had anything like it in the history of our entire civilization. every model, every chart, and every price prediction will be destroyed.
Discussion
I don't know. There's not much more natural than the limitations of resources, time or energy. Bitcoin has natural limitations. Wouldn't there naturally be limitations?
As much as I too adore the warm hug of hopium, I think I'd prefer price action I could predict. But more than bias, wouldn't it make sense for price to be a proportion of adoption, sentiment, and utility? In which case, the holy Grail of charts exists, just no one has figured out how to draw it yet.
For bitcoin, up only is thr holy grail of charts 😂
Plebs seem on average price agnostic. To me a sat could easily carry a 100x spot price and I would feel that’s a fair or reasonable value, still with room for further price appreciation.
True node running plebs set the ultimate price floor which we see emerge during bear markets. Plebs just take what market price is in front of us and don’t really worry about the fiat “pricing” game. Or at least we think about spot price much differently, where we see what it will be at full adoption, and get the privilege of buying sats deeply discounted from that terminal value.
great observation!
I do.
🤔
This week's fair market value is between 121k powerbellGM2 and 141k S2FGM2 increasing about 4k every week for the immediate future.
I spent a 1000 plus hours figuring out that BTC's value is either based on S2F or S2F sitting on the BTC actual prices power trendline. I used the monthly delta of Global M2 lagged 13 weeks and smoothed to filter out the noise. Essential GM2's effects make it impossible to get a .95=r^2 with a S2F model because it makes too big of an impact without accounting for it.
With it PowerBellGM2 has an r^2=.975 insanly high and beyond reasonable doubt. STFGM2 has an r^2=.963. Pretty freaking high. They are very similar but S2FGM2 is more reactive of GM2 and less accurate which i am happy about because I found PowerBellGM2 due to the fact that I could not reconcile in my head that S2F does not corrispond to long term BTC price action and either btc price actions power trend line must break or S2F must break.
As of now I don't see a reason for PowerBellGM2 to break unless BTC price starts heading orders of magnitude higher. Like 1.5mil this cycle. 5 mil next cycle and I just don't see that happening. In that case we'll S2FGM2 might be our winner.
Outside of the first cycle btc price action rally if ever breaks outside of 2SD of their predictions except blow off tops. Time will tell but if you know anything about statistics it is almost beyond doubt that S2F drives price action muted by btc actual price power trendline. Keeping price within the range of human nature. All the other numbers relating to PowerBellGM2 are even more ridiculous than it's r^2. So yeah i think i am pretty close to knowing how to forecast BTC in USD.
Yeah, 250k is almost inevitable in and around the last week of September.
Significance F = In statistical analysis, a significant F-value (from an F-test) indicates that the overall model is statistically significant, meaning it explains a significant amount of variance in the dependent variable. Essentially, it tells you whether the model as a whole provides a better fit to the data than a model with no predictors.
Significance F in in my model has so many 0000s after the decimal point that excel just called it 0. 😆
It doesn't make sense to price it in terms of global assets because it had no value other than being money so it's the literal other side of that trade. It's market cap in the maximum is nothing more or less than the total abstracted and stored time and energy that has yet to be consumed of all humanity. This includes lost coins. All your models are certainly destroyed.