CEO 10x Research: Fed rate cut no longer guarantees Bitcoin growth
Fed reaction
- Despite the rate cut, the market remained volatile — BTC rose briefly, then pulled back.
- Jerome Powell sent mixed signals: neutral, hawkish, and dovish at once, increasing uncertainty.
- There is no consensus inside the Fed; the base scenario now is a pause, not an active cycle of further reductions.
- A rate cut alone is no longer an automatic trigger for crypto growth.
Why growth stopped
- This cycle, the market is almost entirely dependent on institutional money rather than retail.
- Institutions act cautiously and reduce activity toward the end of the year.
- Without an influx of new capital, the market cannot maintain a sustainable upside.
Capital flows and ETFs
- Inflows into Bitcoin ETFs in 2025 are noticeably lower than a year earlier.
- The slowdown in institutional purchases began in the fall.
- In December, on-chain net outflows were recorded for the first time since August 2023, signaling selling rather than accumulation.
- The key factor for the reversal remains real cash flows, not abstract “liquidity.”
Technical picture of BTC
- Bitcoin has exited the bullish channel formed since 2023.
- The price cannot return inside the channel, signaling a loss of momentum.
- The current phase is a consolidation with increased risk of further sideways movement.
Cycles and seasonality
- Markus Thielen believes the four-year cycle still works, but its driver is the political cycle and elections, not halving.
- Historically, BTC peaked more often in Q4, followed by a cooling phase.
- Current dynamics fit well with this scenario.
Altcoins and where is the altseason
- Annual unlocks of tens of billions of dollars in altcoins create constant pressure.
- Institutions focus on BTC and, to some extent, ETH, bypassing smaller tokens.
- Money from traditional finance flows into crypto stocks and IPOs, which are now replacing the classic altseason.
- Among altcoins, Markus Thielen highlights BNB as an ecosystem and income bet.