A network split is different from a chain fork. A network split happens in the physical layer. Something physically disconnects one part of the internet from the rest, like cutting a bunch of undersea cables or an EMP detonation. This will almost certainly lead to a chain fork when miners on one side of the fork discover a block that the other side doesn't know about. Blockstream satellite, if operational, will prevent this scenario. A nation state attacker or one with equivalent resources will know this and will try to knock out the satellite feed. We're talking superpower world war type of scenario. My above post was more limited in scope, just talking about risk from software bugs.
Discussion
We dance around the term "nation state attacker" like its a taboo just to call it out. America. lol Also known for knocking out energy resources of other countries and attacking others for 99% of its existence.
It is in the worlds best interest, and Bitcoin's best interest that this empire falls.
Thanks for clarifying regarding the bugs. But regarding the chain fork, soft forks are backwards compatible, hard forks have happened before and we were alright. I mean BCH still exists but it doesn't pose a serious threat imo...
I used the vague "nation state attacker" term on purpose. Once the old system breaks we will enter a chaotic period where anything could happen. Everything will change rapidly. It is just not possible to make high confidence, evidence based predictions about what will happen during and after this chaotic phase. Right now the US and China are the only credible "nation state attackers" but that could change rapidly. A lot of people are scared of a malevolent AI killing all humans. I don't put much credence in these doomer theories but I think "nation state or equivalent" covers this scenario too.
It's important to distinguish between an intentional hard fork like bcash and an unintentional one like a network split would cause. With bcash, people were able to pick which side of the fork they supported or do nothing and see where the chips fall. They knew not to broadcast certain transactions that could get replayed on the other fork, etc. An unintentional hard fork will not be orderly. People may not find out about it until their side of the fork experiences a blockchain reorg and their recent transactions get reversed. This scenario is very bad for bitcoin as a whole. Confidence and price will plummet immediately, bitcoin businesses will lose money and many will fail. It will set back the entire bitcoin movement many years.
China seems to like hard money more than america. We will see.
China uses unbacked paper currency just like the USA. They invented it! They also are undoubtedly the closest to implementing a network split with the great firewall.
The inventor knows its risks much better.
Hence why BRICS are moving to gold backed currencies.