GUESSING THE LINES

I’m still on a heater after going 4-1 on the Normal picks and 3-2 on the Ugly. It’s too bad I got off to a slow start because I’d otherwise be in contention. Then again, it’s a good thing I’m not in contention the one year I missed the SuperContest, which is what I was worried about.

If I try to explain it too much I’ll lose the rhythm, but suffice it to say, there is no method, no metric, no one else’s rankings, no “fade the public,” no nothing. There’s getting in touch with the slate, reading it as best you can and making the picks. And as I’ve said, Guessing The Lines is just part of the discovery process, not a technique for making the picks themselves.

Let’s take a look at Week 10:

I’m way off on a few games, particularly the Browns-Ravens, Texans-Bengals and Packers-Steelers. (The numbers are disparate on Vikings-Saints, but around the zero doesn’t mean much.)

I think the Browns are probably a play, and maybe the Bears. The Texans I like, but not the dramatic way they won. It’s odd to me the Steelers aren’t favored by more — the Packers are terrible, but maybe I’m missing something.

I’m feeling the Lions a little bit against a soft Chargers team with a short week and big win. The Cowboys can name their score against the Giants, but the Giants will try to grind it into the muck. I’m probably laying the wood in Dallas up to 20.

I also like the Jets a little against the Raiders, but it’s a short week and a Sunday night West Coast game.

I’ll revisit on Friday, when I might reject some or all of these initial leans.