I think the devil will be in the future lending as you allude to. Which UTXOs are being used as collateral?
Will any of y’all cool kid podcasters please talk about MSTR’s custodian(s) not having the bitcoin? Coinbase being the most likely culprit.
MSTR can allocate all the capital they want to this asset. Their allocation can get audited by fiat auditors. Everything can pass the smell check for fiat equity markets. But if they’re not ensuring someone is taking 100% custody of the bitcoin then they’re enabling paper manipulation of the supply cap.
Was super disappointed listening to nostr:npub1guh5grefa7vkay4ps6udxg8lrqxg2kgr3qh9n4gduxut64nfxq0q9y6hjy rip with Jeff. Everyone is just straight up MSTR hype … no one is addressing the *obvious* risk in the room.
Listen, if companies really integrate absolute scarcity into the existing fiat markets, the arbitrage opportunities are endless and massive in wealth creation. So yes…I love MSTR in theory. But if it is just fiat games played with Bitcoin … real bitcoiners will be hurt.
The longer we flounder here around 50% above last cycle’s ATH, the more likely fractional reserving MSTR’s bitcoin is happening. nostr:note15dzh7ew0fke0k4qkcxyexrfetvasvdcuekmg5qmkzrw0cgwlhn5qcq3f46
Discussion
I understand that proof of reserves isn’t perfect. I understand that. 100%. And they’re right, it isn’t perfect.
However, give us proof of reserves to begin with … let’s see the bitcoin on the blockchain. MSTR should be able to point to ~500k bitcoins and say … those ones are the ones we bought…right there!
And then let the public disclosures start to report their leverage against their Bitcoin. Then maybe we start to demand that they line up the blockchain addresses to match their financing strategy. Maybe there are certain “accounts” or UTXOs disclosed as levered bitcoin or some other transparent solution.
This whole “proof of reserves isn’t perfect therefore we shouldn’t demand it.” is an incredibly bad take. and it is a take held by some of my favorite bitcoiner personalities.
They never would have gone for it if Saylor wasn’t out there being one of them on the podcast circuit. If it was a bank who was doing this … with no public face orchestrating it, no Saylor ramblings on only the top 5 bitcoin podcasts (with maybe a surprise appearance on a smaller one), every bitcoin podcaster would be berating the company to disclose. “Do not trust. Verify.” Used to mean something.
But no — They’re getting invited to parties. They’re getting invited to conferences where their entire trip is comped. Ego is creeping back in on them…
Saylor is a BitcoinBug bro.
I don’t believe him. He doesn’t have the corn.
He has promises that the corn is there and that’s enough for him but he can’t expose what he supposedly has sand that’s super sus.
I think one of the ETFs will offer some kind of Proof of Reserve first as a way to distinguish themselves from the pack, much like Fidelity can claim they hold their own keys.
This might be the factor that pushes shareholders to ask that of MSTR, but maybe not.