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Too slowly, though. When nation states start stacking … $1M/BTC will get here real quick.

Yes. The power law breaks to the upside, but only once game theory overtakes it.

Imagine you could range the price of an asset for 20 years from now and the downside is literally catastrophic to humanity (ie break encryption destroying the internet).

You gonna back the absolute worst case, or the median case that this power law continues?

You literally can’t defend the worst case; a crapshoot where 98% of us randomly perish and we’re back to the Stone Age.

You can ride the median and best case to prosperity.

Pretty obvious how one plays that scenario even if they end up wrong, they only had one good choice to make.

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Discussion

BoomTown 1y ago

I think the timing is an element of the model … that’s why I bias more to the S2F (and the S/F adjusted for absolute scarcity) as a fair value model.

Power law seems like a way to discourage people from buying bitcoin, IMO.

But I agree with Saylor, all our models are broken once absolute scarcity game theory breaks out.

StackSats.IO 1y ago

S2F will be found out in the next 24 months (it already was but old mate changed his model). One left translated cycle which is more likely now than ever destroys the model.

Power law isn’t bound by anything other than standard deviations. It’s just an equation which works backwards to adoption which maps on to Metcalfe’s Law for Bitcoin.

Of course Bitcoin goes up as the network grows. That should be obvious.

Power law isn’t discouraging anyone from anything. People are gonna people.

Give up on S2F. Use Power Law as your range.