Bitcoin merchant adoption has regressed in the last 10 years.

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Nominally or as a percentage?

And do you have supporting data or just a feeling?

Both.

Just a feeling. 8 years ago bitcoin was the dominant MoE in darknet markets, now it has been dethrowned.

Also there were some big merchants that accepted it, such as Steam that have since stopped.

All the coffeeshops in El Salvador pail in comparison.

Custodial bitcoin credit cards don't help this at all. There's no incentive to install bitcoin specific hardware to stores if bitcoin can be spent with the current hardware. That's how the masses will probably spend "their" bitcoin anyway.