Fake L2 / centralized coordination creates an incentive problem with miners for sure. With any meaningful scale they'll have incentive to vertically integrate miners and coordinators to start play games where they mine their control transactions and not competing ones or exits.

But that aside, if things remain where they are with sub-sat fees, and price languishes relative to the subsidy with future halvings, the nature of hash rate will inevitably change but not necessarily decrease.

The big industrial miners right now are already starting to pivot to AI, the arb is starting to come out of stranded energy. The subsidy also currently draws in institutional investment that will pay a premium for "uncirculated" coins that have a known provenance and can't in the future be linked to "illicit activity". With each halving this strategy becomes more expensive for these institutional accumulators.

That's not necessarily negative for overall hash rate, ASICS keep coming and each new version is cheaper than the previous one.

Things like Heatbit are a glimpse into where the hashrate will move to once institutional miners start move on, application where heat is the primary output and Bitcoin just subsidizes THAT. Greenhouses, water heaters in your house etc.

This would be better than the status quo today vs. a few very large pools anointed by institutional (nation-state?) capital.