Not predicting. It's coin toss right now. Below $47k yes. Above $74k no. Anything between is just noise.
Either way 80% crash is coming. Just dunno yet if it's from the $74k high. Or after a run to $150k.
Discussion
$74K as the cycle high seems insane.
Depends. It has potential 5 wave completion since Nov 2022, which would mean 5 wave completion since 2019 low.
All macro charts have some ugliness to them right now. SPX included. To what depth and when is TBD. Sit and wait mode for now.
How many halvings have you been through?
Halving doesn't matter.
I’m not much of a chart nerd, but historically after the halving has taken place there’s around a year of uptrend that follows.
This is true. Which is concerning. When everyone believes something, including an indicator, market does the opposite.
Same happens for EW.
The more people hate it, the better it works.
It's when Elliott Wave starts trending that I get nervous because a groupthink could be occurring.
I don’t like groupthink either, but there is a much larger segment of people out there who are convinced bitcoin is tulips and Beanie Babies or aren’t paying attention at all, and they’re the ones these cycles are made for.
That's true. But there's a lot who think it's the second coming too. Especially in the Nostr echo chamber.
Not all tops are euphoric blowoffs either.
Regardless, we break above $74k I'll ride it bull side without any qualms. Not until then though.
I’ve just been around for enough time to not obsess with things like wave structures and fib level targets. I’m not a trader, I’m here for the long game.
Timing is a bitch but the cycle is so far undefeated
