On Bitcoin scalability & transaction fees. Some quick calculations.

Let's imagine in 2030 there's 2 billion Bitcoin users (from the current 500 million) creating a savings transaction, from exchange to cold wallet, once a month and Bitcoin is worth 500k EUR.

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This is 9.72 million transactions monthly which is ≈206times over capacity, which is 324,000transactions/day.

This means:

For a 10 sat/vByte:

Average fee per Transaction: ~€11.25.

Confirmation Time:

2–7 days under low congestion.

2–4 weeks under sustained high congestion

So let's say a 1 week and half average (12 days) for a transaction and an average €11 cost.

Certainly not ideal but still very useful for many many people and for the best currency in the world, and also considering this is a savings transaction (from exchange to cold wallet, i.e monthly salary to cold wallet).

And then of course, there will be a bunch of alternatives, like Lightning, etc, etc. And also eventually it's technically trivial to upgrade the block size to 4MB, and reduce these fees and times by 4.

#bitcoin #scalability #nostr