Its hard to know, but having a 10m sat UTXO is quite big. Remember whatever it is, it will cost the same for both.

Also CTV might bring a more stable fee environment.

Its all speculation, but I'm interested if anyone has done any studies into this

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In the future you're not going to spend on chain but from time to time you'll want to move a significant amount from your cold storage to whatever layer 2 solution we're all spending on. You'll want to do a large amount at a time to make it economical. Maybe a million sats. You definitely won't want to have UTXOs of less than a million sats sitting in your cold storage.