Let me just put it this way. In all things, China drives to build out peak optionality. There is never just one path taken, and definitely never a full commitment to any single path.

At all times, current dynamics are evaluated and then weighed against a series of possible future outcomes. The very same, at least in my opinion, holds when it comes to China’s thinking on Bitcoin.

I should add here that the primary, even overwhelming, focus remains on gold as a settlement layer – via the Shanghai International Gold Exchange – and trade on the margins conducted in the local currency, Renminbi.

What I see as being overlooked by most macro analysts is just how risk averse the Chinese leadership can be when it comes to having a direct effect on upending the American-led world order. There would most certainly be a recognition of the very real ramification of moving too aggressively to upend the dollar hegemonic role. America would lash out. Better, the thinking would be, is to just keep chipping away. Don’t forget, the Chinese benefit greatly from the current global trade system. It is all about contingency planning in the off-chance access to SWIFT is cut off.

On the topic of BTC, it would be foolish to believe that China hasn’t built a position, and a potentially sizable position. I’m quite confident they have even if just as a hedge. There are also more than likely a series of contingency plans in place if there was a global consensus shift towards BTC. Maybe to the point, Chinese leadership, as I see it, would still prefer altering the global trade system which has existed for the past 500 years rather than experiment with what is seen as a new technology.

Hope this helps. Send through any additional questions you might have.