With open source models like Llama 3.1 somewhat keeping up, OpenAI won’t be able to charge enough for their little bit of better performance vs open source to be profitable. Something has to break. Either they develop a secret sauce that can’t be replicated without massive compute for even inference (open source breaks), or they throw the towel and open source themselves or shut down (OpenAI breaks).
Discussion
Or open source breaks via successful lobbying by OpenAI to effectively ban open source with onerous KYC regulations and training data restrictions (you get sued if it can make naked Taylor Swift, even via fine tuning)
without a new round of funding, it's game over, i think .. there is more about this, the first comment is interesting too
https://www.theintrinsicperspective.com/p/all-the-existential-risk-none-of