馃嚞馃嚙 Eduardo Garz贸n is no longer worth the added consumption data of the Indec, which shows that his theory that "inflation falls because consumption sinks" is a nonsense. It tells us that added consumption includes expenditure on imports and that this is not local expenditure. Let's see:
1) The fact that the exchange rate has ceased to depreciate rapidly is, in itself, a clear symptom of deinflation (the weight does not lose so much value compared to the dollar). Exchange-rate stability is not something falling from the sky, but is the result of certain macroeconomic fiscal stabilization policies. It is not the result of using IMF dollars because we are talking about the first quarter of 2025 and the IMF loan is in the second quarter. Very bad.
2) If you subtract imports of added consumption (as domestic expenditure on foreign production), you will have to add to the coherence of exports (as foreign expenditure on domestic production). What happens when we do that? Since the expenditure "consumption + exports - imports" touched historical peaks in the fourth quarter of 2024 (and inflation also fell!). In the first quarter of 2025 it is located above any other quarter of 2023 (with declining inflation against galloping inflation of 2023!).
Accept it: your theory - "inflation falls because domestic consumption has sunk" - is a dispurpose.
馃嚜馃嚫 A Eduardo Garz贸n ya no le vale el dato de consumo agregado del Indec que pone de manifiesto que su teor铆a de que "la inflaci贸n cae porque se hunde el consumo" es un disparate. Nos dice que el consumo agregado incluye el gasto en importaciones y que eso no es gasto local. Veamos:
1) Que el tipo de cambio haya dejado de depreciarse aceleradamente es, en s铆 mismo, un s铆ntoma claro de desinflaci贸n (el peso no pierde tanto valor frente al d贸lar). La estabilidad cambiaria no es algo ca铆do del cielo, sino fruto de ciertas pol铆ticas macroecon贸micas de estabilizaci贸n fiscal. No es fruto de usar d贸lares del FMI porque estamos hablando del primer trimestre de 2025 y el pr茅stamo del FMI se produce en el segundo. Muy mal.
2) Si restas las importaciones del consumo agregado (por ser gasto interno en producci贸n extranjera), tendr谩s que sumar en coherencia las exportaciones (por ser gasto extranjero en producci贸n interna). 驴Qu茅 ocurre cuando hacemos eso? Pues que el gasto "consumo+exportaciones-importaciones" toc贸 m谩ximos hist贸ricos en el cuarto trimestre de 2024 (隆y la inflaci贸n tambi茅n ca铆a!). En el primer trimestre de 2025 se ubica por encima de cualquier otro trimestre de 2023 (隆con la inflaci贸n en ca铆da frente a la inflaci贸n galopante de 2023!).
Ac茅ptalo: tu teor铆a -"la inflaci贸n cae porque se ha hundido el consumo interno"- es un desprop贸sito.