Replying to 7 Hole Doughnut

I take the point that these sorts of estimations can only have a very low degree of confidence. However, my understanding of exponents is that the estimate is wide enough to cover most possibilities.

The difference between 10 to the power of 78 and 82 makes the lower number tiny in comparison (despite it being impossibly large itself). The estimate ranges from an almost inconceivably large number or another one 10,000 times greater.

Apply it to guessing marbles in a jar, you'll get my point. - I estimate there are between 10 to the power 2 and 10 to the power 6 (I.e. Between 100 and 1, 000,000) in the jar.
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StackSats.IO 2y ago

Think you replied to the wrong thread but your last example shows exactly how nonsense the idea is.

A guess which lands between 100 and 1,000,000 is nonsensical. Consider how large a jar to contain 100 marbles is versus a jar to contain 1,000,000 - they’d clearly be hugely different.

And that’s the point, once you’re getting to these levels the margin of error being accepted makes the calculation essentially nonsense. It’s easier for us to understand that with small numbers but getting into exponentials it makes it, exponentially worse.

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