Does it mean that devs can't publish their apps on googles app store without registration?

But will devs still be able to publish their apps on alternative stores like zap store?

Or is it more complex?

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The only thing that changes is that, from next year on, stock Android will refuse to install an APK if a user hasn't registered with Google

*I meant, if the developer of the APK hasn't registered

This is really bad, like "android is cooked" bad. I think it's time we forked from upstream.

Will it be still possible to install any APK via ADB CLI?

Yes adb will still work from what I read

Will it then still be possible to use grapheneOS on pixel phones.

Suck for devs for sure that they will lose reach when they don't want to register in Google