US INTEREST RATE FUTURES PRICE IN 78% CHANCE OF PAUSE IN JANUARY MEETING VS 70% BEFORE FED RATE CUT -LSEG

FUTURES IMPLY TRADERS SEE FED POLICY RATE AT 3.1% AT END-2026 AFTER FED RATE CUT, LITTLE CHANGED FROM LEVELS JUST BEFORE -LSEG

Assuming traders still price independent FED for next year. Mistake imo.

QE starts in 2 days. My outlook: party on into year end, volatility starts Q1 w/ bootlicker Hasset as FED chair:

-Rates down

-10Y up

-Gold up

-Stocks up

-Dollar down