In the Prisoner’s Dilemma, where the warden has a vested interest, the worst outcome for the warden is when the two prisoners cooperate with each other.

Trump’s shift in stance last night was likely due to his assessment that both prisoners were leaning toward not confessing—and possibly even uniting against the warden.

To counter this, the warden’s strategy would be to sow distrust between the two prisoners, pushing them back toward a position where each is ready to betray the other.

This led to a softening of stance toward the more compliant prisoner, while increasing pressure or penalties on the more defiant one.

If Trump’s calculations are correct, the defiant prisoner will begin to doubt whether the other prisoner might betray him and side with the warden. Meanwhile, the more compliant prisoner, feeling encouraged, may be more willing to confess and play along with the warden’s game.

This would ultimately lead back to a Nash equilibrium.

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