#Bitcoin & The Fate of Empires
Throughout history civilisations have risen and fallen. Some empires were more benign & benevolent, some more evil & destructive…
The thing they all have in common is the inevitable cycle of rise and fall.
Can #Bitcoin adoption extend the cycle of empire and make them more benevolent?
The Fate of Empires is a theory developed by Sir John Glubb (aka Glubb Pasha) which analyses the life cycle of empires throughout history and identifies patterns in their rise and fall.
It provides a framework on how #Bitcoin will influence existing and future empires and change human history.
The theory divides the lifecycle of empires into 6 stages, each with its specific attributes and behaviours:
1- The Age of Pioneers
2- The Age of Conquest
3- The Age of Commerce
4- The Age of Affluence
5- The Age of Intellect
6- The Age of Decadence and Decline
Let’s have a closer look at each phase…
1- The Age of Pioneers
The initial period of an empire’s formation is characterised by the qualities of adventure, courage and enterprise. Pioneers venture into new territories, establishing colonies and expanding their influence.
16th century Britain is a good example, as it began to establish its first colonies in North America and the Caribbean. It emerged as a naval power and produced explorers like Sir Walter Raleigh and Sir Francis Drake.
#Bitcoin heralds the Age of Pioneers
Any entity that adopts Bitcoin is likely to enter the Age of Pioneers.
🇸🇻El Slavador has adopted Bitcoin and my prediction is that it will cause Central America to enter an era of unprecedented growth and success.
#Bitcoin’s decentralisation of financial power means more people with good ideas have the means to act on them. And go out to explore and innovate…
Adopting #Bitcoin also means centralised power structures don’t have a money printer to rely on. We will soon find out that this makes governments in places like 🇸🇻El Salvador very capable and efficient.
#Bitcoin fosters competition because there is less “rent-seeking” with #Bitcoin. If you want to earn more #Bitcoin you will need to work for it and provide value to the marketplace. This encourages outward thinking, trade and innovation.
And if the Age of Pioneers includes exploring the galaxy, #Bitcoin will be indispensable because aliens won’t be trading with us for anything less!
2- The Age of Conquests
The second stage happens as the empire strengthens and starts to expand its territory and influence through military means. This stage often sees remarkable achievements in military and administrative systems.
It was at this stage that Britain expanded its influence into the Americas, Africa, and Asia through a series of wars. It also won the Seven Years' War (1756-1763) against great power competitor France.
Britain had a strong navy, a well-trained army, and arguably the world’s best bureaucratic and judicial system (English common law is still widely in use today)
#Bitcoin accelerates the Age of Conquests
If conquest is a means for an empire to get access to resources, #Bitcoin can be a peaceful way to get those resources.
#Bitcoin will be the most desirable asset in the world and everybody will want to trade anything for #Bitcoin.
The nation that owns the most #Bitcoin will therefore have a great advantage over its competitors. Game theory at its best…
If an empire does go the conquest route though, #Bitcoin speeds up integration of the new territories by providing a universal medium of exchange that doesn’t require permission from central authorities.
#Bitcoin forces government transparency, so any nation that has adopted #Bitcoin will have stronger military and bureaucratic systems. Especially compared to an enemy that has gotten lazy and inefficient from the fiat money printer.
3- The Age of Commerce
At this stage, society shifts to one driven by commerce. Wealth accumulates, luxury grows, and the focus turns towards commerce and trade.
The British empire went through the Industrial Revolution (18th and 19th century) during this stage. It became the global hub for trade and manufacturing, and the territories it gained during the previous Age of Conquest provided raw materials.
This age was characterised by significant technological and economic progress in the British empire.
#Bitcoin will be the 100x multiplier
#Bitcoin is permissionless and peer-to-peer. This makes transactions easier and faster and causes an explosion in commerce and entrepreneurship.
It’s hard money so innovation will skyrocket, just like the gold standard did in Europe in the 19th century. But then 100x because that is what happens when a technology transforms an analog industry into a digital one.
Saving rates will be higher so more people can dedicate their careers to long-term projects (without immediate benefits) from which the real innovations and productivity gains will come.
4- The Age of Affluence
The empire reaches a point of great wealth, influence and rising living standards. However, this affluence starts to lead to selfishness and love of money. The focus becomes material wealth and the old ethics of virtue and duty start to erode.
The British went through their Victorian era (mid to late 19th century) at this stage. They were at the height of imperial power, becoming the world’s leading military and economic superpower.
Virtuous wealth and affluence
#Bitcoin’s purchasing power goes up forever, in line with productivity increases in the economy.
Owning #Bitcoin therefore gives people a long-term focus. Why spend my #Bitcoin today if I (or my descendants) get more value out of it tomorrow?
This way it serves as a natural restraint on our impulses to want to go out and squander money. This restraint is clearly evident in many Hodlers today who try to live as healthy as possible, work on their craft, stay humble, and just stack sats.
#Bitcoin also keeps governments small, eliminating the risk of the wasteful megalomaniac projects governments tend to undertake when they believe they should solve every problem on the planet.
5- The Age of Intellect
This is when the empire’s focus shifts towards intellectual accomplishments. This age is marked by increased scepticism, materialism, and a decrease in discipline, self-sacrifice, and social cohesion.
On top of that, the government has expanded and becomes more complex.
The British empire saw significant advancements in science (Darwin, Maxwell), literature (Dickens, Hardy), and social thought (Mill, Bentham) during this age.
However, this period also saw an increase in critiques of imperialism, and a rise in nationalist movements in the colonies.
#Bitcoin keeps more people happy & grounded in reality
A civilisation that has adopted #Bitcoin will have less inequality and more social cohesion because Bitcoin is open for everyone to save and transact.
Without interference from a central authority that discriminates on whatever grounds.
Colonies would be thriving, mitigating the economic reason for discontent and rebellion. That said, colonies can still be taxed, but since #Bitcoin forces small government these would likely be lower.
#Bitcoin would ground intellectual accomplishments in reality, which will come from the free market of ideas. #Bitcoin is simply too valuable to spend on the “hobby intellectuals” that populate most universities funded by public money.
6- The Age of Decadence and Decline
The final stage is the empire's decline and eventual fall. Society becomes less cohesive, with the military overstretched and the economy over-leveraged.
It's often characterised by consumption, a loss of sense of duty, and an unwillingness to sacrifice comfort for the greater good.
The British empire was severely weakened by overspending in WW1 and WW2 (encouraged by the Americans who saw a chance to take control of the Atlantic).
Britain lost most of its empire in the two decades after WW2. It lost many of its traditional industries and saw a rapid growth of the welfare state as well as immigration from its former colonies.
#Bitcoin keeps overextension in check
Overextension and over-leverage are driven by inefficient capital allocation. Wasteful government spending is often the cause of this.
If #Bitcoin forces governments to stay small, it severely reduces the risk of overextension and inefficient capital allocation.
The same applies to overconsumption of resources. #Bitcoin will make money so valuable that it is only worthwhile to invest in the most innovative projects.
On top of this, #Bitcoin mining is unleashing a revolution in one of the most important energy markets: energy. #Bitcoin mining incentivises innovation in productivity, ensuring we extract the most value out of our energy resources.
#Bitcoin can change the cycle of empires
Humans are humans, and we will always be prone to make mistakes due to emotions, jealousy, pride, ambition and laziness.
But #Bitcoin’s ever-increasing value has the unique characteristic that it plants a long-term view into us humans. It does this in a way no other technology has ever done before.
And when the value of tomorrow goes up significantly, the opportunity costs of wasting today do as well. Incentivising the efficient usage of time and money…
#Bitcoin also causes decentralisation which combines this long-term view with less centralised points of failure. This is a potent mix for long term stability and human striving!
Will #Bitcoin be able to extend the cycle of empires and make them more benevolent?
Time will tell, but I think it gives us the chance to take the next evolutionary step and take civilisation to the next level!
