To expand on that, I think we're heading for an interesting situation where the state, as you say, does become authoritarian in theory (de jure) and expands its powers but at the same time looses its grip on the real world and will become less and less able to exercise executive power.

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Also when a state overextends its powers with little to no effects on the real world the potential threats of noncompliance looses its magic.

"I'm unvaccinated and got away with it, so why should I pay taxes?"