One year later. BTC has zero gains in dollar terms. Pretty wild 2025.

Low ~$78k.

High ~ 125k.

200 day rolling average is ~109k.

A model (hypothetical): BTC will do a 30% gain per year (given a duration of 3-5 years).

Currently we are up ~ 420% over the last five years = 37.9% average yearly return.

If we see growth of 30% /yr over the next 5 years, we’d double twice. At ~100k today that’d be ~400k in 5 years. At $78k (low of 2025) a twice double is ~ $275k.

So is BTC expensive right now?

Best I can figure is that 91k is a fair value. At ~$65k per BTC it would be a better value. Suppose then $40k is extreme value.

🤷🏻‍♂️

How are you thinking of fair value for BTC?

Let us know in the comments.