What’s Next for Oil? Analysts Weigh In After Iran’s Attack

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Oil futures were barely moved by Iran’s attack on Israel. Citigroup predicts oil prices could trade up to $100/bbl depending on the nature of events. Goldman Sachs estimates that oil prices already reflect a $5-to-$10-a-barrel risk premium from downside risks to supply. Societe Generale says the risk of direct military action between the US and Iran has risen to 15% probability. United Overseas Bank believes prices will climb toward $100 a barrel or higher if Iran’s crude production comes under threat. The International Crisis Group suggests that Israel may not have the option to not respond to Iran's attack. SVB Energy believes the market should maintain its balance if the recent attacks do not cause damage to oil production and export facilities. ING Groep says the market had already priced in some form of attack, and the key uncertainty is how Israel responds. RBC Capital Markets says the response from Israel will determine whether the situation leads to a wider war. The International Energy Agency warns of heightened oil security risks and increased volatility in oil markets. ANZ Banking Group believes any further escalation is unlikely given the well-telegraphed attack. Again Capital says the oil market can breathe a sigh of relief, at least for now. A/S Global Risk Management suggests that stricter sanctions on Iran are likely, but a closure of the Strait of Hormuz seems unlikely.

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/next-crude-oil-analysts-weigh-030858469.html