Dollar value is separate from increasing adoption numbers.
Assuming increasing adoption numbers as part of the $197.xT increase, lightning would need to significantly increase.
Discussion
Hmmm. Good point 🤙 But wouldn't nominal value increase, even with current channel's capacity?
Yes ofc the current coin value of current lightning channels would increase, but the lightning network is only currently 0.0002% of total Bitcoin network from a sats perspective. On chain has its limits and lightning capacity would in this scenario as well unless the lightning mycelium network grows with adoption.
There could also be an argument that current lightning operators would actually DECREASE lightning channel capacity as value increases... Reducing hot coin exposure.
I think it would increase. When demand increases, supply will naturally do the same. Balancing the level.
Supply vs Demand is always a pendulum swinging back and forth, seeking a balance.
Fees for lightning âš¡ will increase as the supply becomes valuable, and then the supply will increase, out of self interest.
Fair points. My fear is that most technical people that are going to run and manage a lightning node already do. The adoption deltas we're contemplating are currently normie sheep. It is a long hard road for them to get to the level of noderunning. Technological improvements will lower that barrier as well, but I still have my doubts about sheep becoming wolves.