Imo the biggest threat to Bitcoin isn't governments adopting it or a bunch of ETFs

It's if the majority of mining is performed by the state (or regulated by the state)

This could enable large double spends especially considering huge stockpiles of coins are now also held by regulated custodians

Then what? Theory is node runners just fork the network to before the double spend

But of course this is a huge mess, individuals could lose billions, even trillions, will make block size wars look like child's play. Our $5 DCA up against Saylor and blackrock and the money printer.

Bitcoin is a network effect technology and also based on people's confidence in it as a reliable savings technology - the network and confidence could be shattered

This threat is already here today, while we celebrate the hash rate blowing up we are ignoring it's all happening with public miners under the thumb of the USG - and it gets worse every month.

I suggest that we need to take responsibility for mining much more seriously - little 1 TH bitaxes aren't gonna cut it unless tens of millions of people are doing it, which is unlikely.

Anyway just rambling maybe useless fud, I'm tired and hungry, but this keeps me up at night

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Large double spend is not feasible wtf.. What could you pay for?

EU demands delivery of all their coins from Coinbase

Coinbase sends it

Usg demands they are double spent back to Coinbase

Usg?

Uh, USA?

And that's not a real transaction, just a withdrawal from coinbase.

In which case coinbase might just refuse in the first place.

Double spends are the least of our concerns. They're incentivized not to as it'd collapse their stack's value too. Censorship at the mining level is much more concerning if you ask me. OFAC rules have no place determining access to blockspace.

While I agree with that, eventually some non regulated pool would write the transaction to the chain and wouldn't lead to any forks

The USG may want to nuke the value of the chain and use the miners to do so

Not impossible, but that likelihood does seem to dwindle by the day. Writing a block or two to the chain is all well and good, but if a majority (or even a decent chunk) of blocks are OFAC compliant, it'd give the monetary system a case of "emphysema" in that it just wouldn't flow very smoothly for many players. While yes, they'll still find ways around sanctions, we don't need to re-create the SWIFT fiasco. China coming back online would help this fairly quickly, as would Russia ramping up their mining efforts (the nuclear plants certainly wouldn't hurt). Even Saudi could likely give us a run for our money if they simply turn their oil to mining bitcoin, rather than cutting production as part of their price regulation. If anything the US's lagging approach to implementing nuclear is the big hope I have that we can avoid such a bleak future. If anyone really tries to contend with us on energy production, they can win.

Nah, pub co miners and Foundry are all suits that are delighted to be regulated harder. It does look like a bad situation.

Figure out what % of all 21m coins you hold.

Do you contribute that % of total hashrate?

It seems like a reasonable metric. Accountable for your share of the security budget.

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If BTC truly is the ideal neutral money, then there are incentives for mining to spread globally. That includes across countries that are enemies, so I don't think a scenario where most mining happens in the US is very stable.

Damn man, Elmer FUD going hard! Look, the main threat here is not understanding that hodling Bitcoin and spending bitcoin are two separate yet equally important scarcity checks. The coin scarcity versus your stack and the block scarcity versus your transaction. If you hodl you essentially take the power from the miners and bankrupt them (No transactions = no fees). The only profitable model will be the distributed Bitaxes mining on Ocean, Public Pool, or CK Pool. Like all other things that don't produce real value in a hard money world, they get poorer. Hodl your own coins, and distribute a small amount of hash solo or sovereignty focused pool. It makes no difference to the network if an exahash is one mining warehouse or distributed across millions of small machines. It'll be okay man, incentives align to make Bitcoin more resilient.

Also, many nodes submitting transactions on chain need to be running

https://github.com/libbitcoin/libbitcoin-system/wiki/Censorship-Resistance-Property

This.

I can't believe we have so many so-called Bitcoiners eager to get the government involved in Bitcoin. WTF.