lets play a game

guess the usd bitcoin price exactly a month from now

sep 26th 2025 - 0414 UTC

closest guess will be zapped 5555 sats

only guesses made within the next 24 hours qualify

(if i think you are a bot you are disqualified)

A whale on Polymarket has a $37,924 bet that Jerome Powell will say the words "Good Afternoon" during today's FOMC.

It will pay out $38,698 if it hits.

I've been thinking about this pondering all the ways enshitification might occur once everyone is completely dependant. It won't be pretty. This is in addition to the state/corporate surveillance, not to mention the data leaks.

⚡️🤖 NEW - Apple doesn't see reasoning models as a major breakthrough over standard LLMs - new study

Here is why:

In its latest study, The Illusion of Thinking, Apple questions the widespread assumption that large language models are already capable of real logical thinking - i.e. real “reasoning”. Instead of a cognitive breakthrough, the Apple researchers see a kind of illusion: the models merely create the impression of thinking without actually having stable, comprehensible thought processes.

At the heart of the criticism is the observation that LLMs drastically lose performance in more complex tasks - even if they had enough computational time or tokens available to solve the task. This means that as soon as the complexity increases, the performance of the models drops rapidly.

Apple systematically tested this with specially developed tasks in a controlled environment. Even small changes to the task - such as changing the wording or inserting irrelevant information - resulted in the model no longer answering correctly. According to Apple, this indicates that LLMs do not develop consistent, generalizable thinking strategies, but rather fall back on statistical patterns that they have learned during training.

This means that actual “thinking” does not take place - rather, it is a sophisticated form of pattern recognition that works impressively under certain conditions, but becomes fragile under stress.

In addition, there is another problem that Apple particularly emphasizes: Many benchmarks on which today's models are tested - such as GSM8K - are already included in their training data. This results in a distorted perception of the actual capabilities. To get around this, Apple has developed a new benchmark called GSM-Symbolic, which reveals the true limits of reasoning capabilities.

The results show: When the models are confronted with slightly different tasks that they cannot rely on, they often fail.

For Apple, it is clear that the current hype surrounding the reasoning of large language models is based on superficial results and benchmark illusions. Truly robust, generalizable reasoning has not yet been achieved - and as long as models cannot consistently deal with new, unfamiliar problems, it is better not to speak of a real breakthrough.

Do you agree with Apple? #asknostr

Please support a local small pizzeria 🙏

Big chains are shitcoins

"Software engineer lost his $150K-a-year job to AI—he’s been rejected from 800 jobs and forced to DoorDash and live in a trailer to make ends meet," per FORTUNE

Less than 1k sats per $1.

Broken Money has now sold over 100,000 copies.

The readership demographic is really broad as far as I can tell. Many sales are individuals, in many countries.

But for example there is a big tradfi institutional money manager that has given out dozens of copies to his money manager friends, and there is a big CEO that gives out dozens of copies to his CEO friends and members of Congress and stuff.

Throughout this year more translations will come out. I think my foreign rights agent has like 7 languages out so far, and another 13+ are in the pipeline.

Guys???

Goodreads, but actually good (and nostr-native, of course) #nostrWishlist

After 70 months of payments, you've got a paid-off car that you bought for $40k, that ended up costing you $55k (thanks to interest and insurance), that's now only worth $16k (thanks to depreciation).

But stacking $500 worth of #Bitcoin monthly is considered risky. HFSP

#Bitcoin doesn’t care who you are, where you’re from, or what you believe — it’s money for the people, by the people.

This is not breakfast, this is dessert.

Ironically, Id like to go back to RSS curated feeds and software.

The crap that Google news and others aggregate is all garbage clickbait, and social media is useless for actual stories.

I find my self going to about 20-30 bookmarks daily to read news.

That, plus ground.news helps.

BTC $100k tomorrow

I guarantee it. This is financial advice.

The European Central Bank is reading the Bent. What a wild timeline.

Nice to see they’re doing their research but their conclusions are off. Small steps.

Everyone will come around to bitcoin eventually.