My analysis is measured.
Lots of folks didn't expect chop for 2024, nor right now. I did because markets of large size take more oomph to move them.
Im measured because the data tells me that is what is most likely. I don't know the future, nobody does.
But I am always honest with what I think is realistic vs BS engagement.
Not bearish, measured.
I've never said it would be THE TOP, just a likely spot for A TOP.
We need to pass 150k to get to 151k, and so on.
Im planning to.
Main issue is getting Nostr to work desktop (I try to avoid phone socials)
Gold is absolutely ripping.
Amazing to watch.
every $300 jump in the gold price is 1x entire Bitcoin market cap.
If gold can move up by several trillions of dollars in a year...
hello Nostr
Paper #Bitcoin
Many folks like to argue that derivatives markets suppress the $BTC price, and stop number going up.
In this piece, I argue the opposite, that number go up will be hard without them.
My latest piece is below for Checkonchain subscribers.
Devil's Advocate.
My latest #Bitcoin analysis is live for _checkonchain subscribers.
In this piece, I assessed almost every metric I have on charts.checkonchain.com to develop the most robust bear case I could, and check my bullish bias.
https://open.substack.com/pub/checkonchain/p/devils-advocate
With #Bitcoin Options in the headlines, I figured it was a good time to share an options 101 with _checkonchain subscribers.
I cover:
- What options are (calls/Puts)
- Options Buyers vs Sellers
- The Greeks (Delta, Vega, Theta)
- Example strategies
https://newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/options-101-derivatives-masterclass
Beating the House Odds in #Bitcoin.
The latest @_checkonchain newsletter is out examining how often Bitcoin trades up, down or sideways.
From this, we can demonstrate strategies for HODLers to amplify their advantage, and put the odds in their favour.
https://open.substack.com/pub/checkonchain/p/beating-the-house-odds
#Bitcoin Demand Doldrums.
The latest analysis piece is out for @_checkonchain subscribers.
Today I share two perspectives:
- Hard realities by Check the Analyst
- What Check the HODLer is doing with that information.
Enjoy folks!
I think you're exactly right about that. My read is that we're probably more undervalued than people think, since we tend to act off how we feel as much as what we see.
The counter point would be people may get frustrated earlier, and 'take what they can get', although I suspect Bitcoiners in particular have overcome a lot of this with experience and study.
The latest episode of the _checkonchain Rough Consensus podcast is live with my market mentor Doc Severson.
Doc has taught me so much about market psychology, and I have used many of these skills to improve my understanding of Bitcoin onchain data.
I really enjoyed this conversation, and I have no doubt others will too.
nailed it. This is exactly how I think about it, and I learned a lot running this study too.
Inflationary Illusions.
My latest #Bitcoin research piece is out for _checkonchain subscribers, examining why this cycle, ATH, and market feels different to prior ones.
What if we never made a real ATH at all?
https://newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/inflationary-illusions
Today I learned that the _checkonchain newsletter is the #1 substack publication in Australia 🦘
Feeling very humbled, thank you to all of our subscribers who helped us get here.
The latest _checkonchain subscriber Q&A session is live.
I cover three topics in a 1hr video:
1) Why I hold gold alongside #Bitcoin
2) How I think about $BTC Miners
3) A routine of metrics I use to assess blood is in the streets before I stack sats.
https://open.substack.com/pub/checkonchain/p/how-to-identify-blood-in-the-streets
Playing with Fire.
My latest market analysis piece is live for Checkonchain subscribers.
Given everything happening in Brazil, I wonder if a decentralised, uncensorable, scarce, digital, global monetary asset might be useful for the world right about now.
Is anyone building something like this?
The Sell-side Risk Ratio is one of my all time favourite #Bitcoin metrics.
It is a tool that helps track trend exhaustion, market instability, and equilibrium.
The Sell-side Risk Ratio Masterclass is now live for _checkonchain subscribers.
https://open.substack.com/pub/checkonchain/p/masterclass-sell-side-risk-ratio