They are government bots to spy on you 😂

What would it look like, if an emergent money was being monetized?

Often when I talk with academics or other high-IQ critics of bitcoin, it’s the volatility and seemingly speculative aspect of it that turns them off. It’s almost distasteful to them. They can get behind the idea of global open-source payments and so forth, “but that’s not why people buy it” they’ll say. “They buy it because they’re speculating. It’s too volatile for its own good.” Some aspect of them dislikes it in principle, almost *because* one can make money from it.

But a new decentralized money, including its own unit of account and liquidity, doesn’t just emerge as a multi-trillion dollar-equivalent network out of the box. In order to go from zero to trillions in market capitalization and liquidity, it needs upside volatility. And with upside volatility comes speculation, leverage, and downside volatility. Cycle after cycle, it’s priced like an option. At first it’s like a 0.1% chance that it succeeds in the long run. And then in the next cycle it’s like 1%. And then in the next cycle it’s like 5%, and so forth. So, early capital allocators that have seen a thing or two and know the high failure rate of new ideas will say, “This’ll probably fail, but if it doesn’t, both the investment gains and the macro implications will be enormous.” And then 15 years into it with a few more cycles under its belt, the probability of success looks less like a distant moonshot and more like a real possibility, and then eventually starts to look like the base case. In the beginning the question is, “how will this succeed?” and at later stages the question becomes, “what risks could prevent this from continuing to succeed?”

The process of buying bitcoin is often a speculative process at first, but then as people learn more, they often view it differently. Those that really want speculation will then continue down the pipeline of altcoins- there’s always some shiny new object to try to speculate on. On the other hand, those who begin viewing bitcoin as money, start to view it as a defensive or risk-off act to hold a piece of this liquid and globally decentralized network of value. One would feel too financially exposed not to.

On Twitter/X I delete like half of the posts I start to make. When I'm doing the post structure I'm eventually like, "you know what, less is probably better here" or "let's be a bit restrained on this one".

And then I think about it for another week, and then post it on Nostr.

Because like, I dunno. Might as well embrace the decentralized real-style medium while it's still this small.

Do you prefer Deontology, Consequentialism, or Virtue Ethics, among the three major philosophical schools of ethics?

If you’re like “what, lol?” that is fine. I’ll have some long form content on this. But I figured I would gather Nostr feedback beforehand to be more useful or specific.

I just tried to send an international wire between bank accounts that I've sent between before with no problem, and got denied this time. They didn't give a reason.

People who say bitcoin is a solution in search of a problem generally don't have many international assets to deal with. International connections between fiat rails are slow, expense, ever-debasing, and at any time the rules change and block you.

Fuck them. Accelerate.

I just tried to send an international wire between bank accounts that I've sent between before with no problem, and got denied this time. They didn't give a reason.

People who say bitcoin is a solution in search of a problem generally don't have many international assets to deal with. International connections between fiat rails are slow, expense, ever-debasing, and at any time the rules change and block you.

Fuck them. Accelerate.

What health-related changes or activities had the most noticeable impact on your health?

#asknostr

I would go with the Razor.

My neighbor put up Christmas lights before Thanksgiving.

Most of me doesn't care, but a small part of me is like:

One day you're gonna wake up and look in the mirror and think you yourself, what the fuck happened. Where did all the gay hair come from?

Interviewed RFK and Vivek today. Got both their takes on #bitcoin.

Both interviews are out next week.