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Gunson
0cca6201658d5d98239c1511ef402562ff7d72446fb201a8d1857c39e369c9fa
Low status fiat heretic. Often wrong. 2 + 2 = 4

This may sound like cope, but there's something liberating about having like 3 followers on nostr.

I don't expect people to really see my notes and replies, so I just use it to vent or write down my thinking on things. It acts as a complement to the handwritten journal that I keep.

The external benefit is that when many others do this we have an excellent pure way of seeing what others think, which helps us all calibrate.

The big tech platforms lose this because they amplify the most divisise views, and may even ban you for writing down your thoughts (even if you didn't care that they be widely seen). Also, they own your notes/posts and you don't have any guarantees that they will always be accessible to you.

I think it's actually all the birds. As we all know, they aren't real. My theory is that they're all secret flying Bitcoin miners launched by the CIA and they fly near the weather stations.

Haven't seen any evidence to refute this yet.

Wait, so you have to first demonstrate that your funds come from lawful sources, and only then can you transact privately? That doesn't even make sense, regardless of how sickening the assocation with Chainalysis is.

Replying to Avatar Timechain

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/technical/chainalysis-the-theranos-of-blockchain-forensics

nostr:npub1qny3tkh0acurzla8x3zy4nhrjz5zd8l9sy9jys09umwng00manysew95gx in case you haven't seen this yet, HUGE break in the Sterlingov Bitcoin Fog case. They basically admitted in court it doesn't work. Now it's on record. Huge.

This is great. Love the game theory of blockchain forensic firms dissing each other in court for expert witness money / street cred.

2024

- Fed pivots

- Bitcoin halving

- Govs weaponise banking and payments with CBDCs

AND (wow we are blessed):

- Bitcoin successfully thwarts the drivechains attack vector

High correlation between those who advocate for state intervention, justify shitcoining in all forms (including trying to cash in on domain names give value by a community), and advocate for drivechains. Curious.

Replying to Avatar Lyn Alden

“We should change Bitcoin now in a contentious way to fix the security budget” is basically the same tinkering mentality that central bankers have.

It begins with an overconfident assumption that they know fees won’t be sufficient in the future and that a certain “fix” is going to generate more fees. But some “fixes” could even backfire and create less fees, or introduce bugs, or damage the incentive structure.

The Bitcoin fee market a couple decades out will primarily be a function of adoption or lack thereof. In a world of eight billion people, only a couple hundred million can do an on chain transaction per year, or a bit more with maximal batching. The number of people who could do a monthly transaction is 1/12th of that number. In order to be concerned that bitcoin fees will be too low to prevent censorship in the future, we have to start with the assumption that not many people use bitcoin decades out.

Fedwire has about 100x the gross volume that Bitcoin currently does, with a similar number of transactions. What will Bitcoin’s fee market be if volumes go up 5x or 10x, let alone 50x or 100x? Who wants to raise their hand with a confident model of what bitcoin volumes will be in 2040?

What will someone pay to send a ten million dollar equivalent on chain settlement internationally? $100 in fees per million dollar settlement transaction would be .01%. $300 to get it in a quicker block would be 0.03%. That type of environment can generate tens of billions of dollars of fees annually. The fees that people pay to ship millions of dollars of gold long distances, or to perform a real estate transaction worth millions of dollars, are extremely high. Even if bitcoin is a fraction of that, it would be high by today’s standards. And in a world of billions of people, if nobody wants to pay $100 to send a million dollar settlement bearer asset transaction, then that’s a world where not many people use bitcoin period.

In some months the “security budget” concern trends. In other months, the “fees will be so high that only rich people can transact on chain” concern trends. These are so wildly contradictory and the fact that both are common concerns shows how little we know about the long term future.

I don’t think the fee market can be fixed by gimmicks. Either the network is desirable to use in a couple decades or it’s not. If 3 or 4 decades into bitcoin’s life it can’t generate significant settlement volumes, and gets easily censored due to low fees, then it’s just not a very desirable network at that point for one reason or another.

Some soft forks like covenants can be thoughtfully considered for scaling and fee density, and it’s good for smart developers to always be thinking about low risk improvements to the network that the node network and miners might have a high consensus positive view toward over time. But trying to rush VC-backed softforks, and using security budget FUD to push them, is pretty disingenuous imo.

Anyway, good morning.

Gm

Well reasoned. Thanks for taking the time to think clearly and articulate yourself in writing.

Totally agree that we need to stay humble about what we can say about the future, and be cautious about introducing changes to such a complex system.

The UK has some of the most expensive petrol prices in the world, driven by taxes (opposite of subsidies). Current petrol price is around 60% taxes: https://www.racfoundation.org/data/percentage-uk-pump-price-which-is-tax-page

You're ignoring / denying the basic facts that I'm sharing with you. But also, this is all beside the point 😂

You were arguing for MORE subsidies. This is not the answer, because these subsidies have to come from SOMEWHERE. Where should they come from?

The point is that they come from us, and they'll be spent on waste. The whole case for ULEZ is a hoax. Try to see the forrest, not the trees 🤗

LOL, thinking about the time the Danish government illegally slaughtered 17 million mink because they (gov, not the mink) had COVID derangement.

They buried them in mass graves but then had to exhume and incinerate them because the carcasses were poisoning the ground water.

The government then changed the law to make it so they hadn't acted illegally. Farmers may be compensated sometime in 2027.

This must be peak COVID stupidity. Stunning.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Danish_mink_cull

Read the article again.

Even this activist website admits these are not really subsidies, but conventional tax breaks that ALL companies get for R&D investment.

You advocated for direct subsidies for electric vehicles by claiming that the UK government already subsidises petrol. It's a weak argument based on no evidence.

Even if it was true, then maybe your argument would be to remove all tax breaks and subsidies for all companies. Not to add even more?

Using these lovely London September evenings as an argument for climate alarmism either demonstrates the weakness of the hysterics' arguments in general, or indicates the Orwellian tendency of advocating good = bad, or both.

But I, for one, am not unhappy about wearing shorts in September.

Mate, you're being way too literal about the word "rigged". There are many factors that make elections less representative of the people, and we are encouraged to support them:

- federal agencies with power to enact policy without democratic accountability (justified on the grounds that they're "experts")

- massive levels of lobbying and political funding that undermine what people thought they voted for (justified on the grounds of "donations" for the "common good")

- shenanigans at the party level that ensure only palatable (to the elite) candidates make it onto the ballot (justified based on the circular logic that they're "electable")

Try not to get so hung up on the wording, and attempt to see the bigger point 😽

The UK government subsidises petrol?

I hate to be a source eagle, but ... Source?

I've noticed a new type of Bitcoin FUD recently. It's quite subtle.

Instead of the usual "it's for criminals", the argument goes:

"It's not a real technological improvement over fiat, just a way to get around regulation".

It seems to imply that the obvious solution is just to tweak payments regulation. Obviously, this is highly regarded since that will never happen, and also because that's only one element of Bitcoin utility (lol, try tweakings regs to prevent money printing).

A could retort could be: "yes, just like medicine is not a real technology, governments could simply stop wounding people in wars"

Great to see comments like this on HN:

"curiousgal 5 hours ago | prev | next [–]

> Bitcoin and crypto is only marketing. It’s only a story

It's interesting when people make such blanket statements because then all you need is one counterexample to prove them wrong. When I was a teeneager in a third world country with a pegged and tightly controlled currency, Bitcoin was the only way I could pay for books and servers online. It was thanks to Bitcoin that I truly felt connected to the rest of the world. To me Bitcoin was a currency and nothing can take that away from me.

Whether or not that still holds today is arguable but to claim something is outright useless just because you haven't found a valid use for it is narrow-minded."

nostr:nevent1qqs8v90qkxfr25g2mn2u493js0p3a37exgcmuu2fwus5lsapkj8wmtqpz3mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfdupzpqt3frpkjq24gqd5j3vqsu0mq4j2t740h9z5syl0990jwp4ujv6eqvzqqqqqqycxk4nd

This EconTalk episode kind of blew my mind. Most cancer screening is ineffective for reducing mortality.

The least surprising part is that the reason we spend so much money on it anyway is due to vested interests and perverse doctor incentives.

https://www.econtalk.org/vinay-prasad-on-cancer-screening/