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Gunson
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Low status fiat heretic. Often wrong. 2 + 2 = 4

Sad how much I'm incentivised at work to look competent, as opposed to achieve our product goals.

The more I get engineers to do analysis and help me make slides for the "ETeam", or get everyone to commit to highly uncertain estimates, the more competent I look as a product manager.

I actively resist this incentive structure, but it just makes me seem antagonistic and not willing to "operate on an executive level". This, even though by avoiding this middle management bullshit trap I'm helping the business far more.

Hi L0la, great article. As someone with a bit of familiarity of AML and IDV systems at financial institutions I can assure you that IP addresses and device IDs are already collected and used widely (mainly to attempt to detect fraud rings, although loads of false positives from people who share devices). Banks balance the privacy constraints of GDPR with the stronger demands of their financial regulators (who are indeed influenced by Wolfsberg and FATF).

Listening to bbc radio 2 news and literally every story was propaganda

Tenderstem broccoli is a shitcoin

*statist* quo bias

Wow, that was really unexpected and cool to see!

Why are they using Bitcoin there? Is it because it's difficult to get a bank account?

National fiat currency seems like a relatively less terrible shitcoin in terms of USD exchange rate over time.

New NPC chip update: "Joe Biden is a good man, but he needs to step aside"

Replying to Avatar fnew

You may have seen the clip of Steve Baker

doing the rounds this weekend. You may have laughed or dismissed his comments, perhaps because you disagreed with him on Brexit. But if you did so, please listen again, because what he's saying is important:

"Your government rode an enormous credit boom within which the money supply tripled, leading to the global financial crisis…and a sense of injustice which has led to many of our subsequent troubles.”

Then read the article shared in the thread, on the $91 trillion debt burden that is currently facing nation states around the world.

There is an unpalatable truth here, which sooner or later we are going to have to acknowledge:

The only way to get rid of a $91 trillion dollar debt is to debase the currency to the point where a trillion dollars will only buy you a loaf of bread.

There’s no sensible way in which a debt of this magnitude can ever be repaid, either through growth or taxation. So what may be likely to happen in the coming years, as this vast web of obligations compounds and continues to grow at an accelerating rate? This is a problem currently confronting Rachel Reeves, our new Chancellor, and Labour, and with which they must engage.

Debt, and credit, are not necessarily bad things. Credit oils the wheels of commerce, and enables us to pull profits from the future to invest and to grow businesses today.

But the warnings of the Ancient Greeks and the Romans that we should do ‘nothing to excess’ were as true for them as they are for us (nihil nimius in Latin, meden agan in Greek – common sayings for each culture, but sadly forgotten by us). There is no sense in which government debts equal to the size of the entire global economy are not excessive and are not a gigantic problem almost beyond resolution.

There are ways out, but none of them palatable. Default, refinancing, or inflation – which will we choose? (Remember that inflation, the enemy du jour, is actually rather good for some people – especially those who owe large sums of money; like nation states).

In our credit-based system, money is nothing more than another person's liability (whether the liability of a central bank, or of a commercial bank). It is backed by absolutely nothing other than the belief that the liability will be repaid (to quote even more Latin, this is the origin of the word 'credit', which comes from the Latin credo credere, to believe).

If a person holding your liability money begins to believe that you're not good for the money, the entire edifice collapses.

Governments cannot allow this loss of faith to happen. Remember, modern money is backed by absolutely nothing other than faith and belief. So a voluntary default (a refusal to pay) is off the table.

Refinancing is possible - issuing new debt to pay the principal and coupon of the old. This is the route most governments that can still access the bond markets have taken to date. This works up to a point, much like taking out a new credit card to pay off a previous one.

This doesn't get rid of the debt – it merely moves it around and can make it easier to service, but ultimately adds to the debt burden in the long run and has the unfortunate effect of compounding it at the same time. If you’d like to see this in highly unpleasant action, just read up on how the IMF and the World Bank treat borrower nations in the global south. I would recommend the excellent book 'Hidden Repression' from Alex Gladstein (link in the thread).

Which leaves us with debasement through inflation.

Governments will almost never admit or articulate this, but the surest way to get rid of a trillion dollar government liability is to debase the currency to the point where the nominal value of their obligations is negligible when measured in a currency whose actual value they have destroyed.

The quote below is from ‘When Money Dies’, a seminal work on the Weimar inflation. Bondholders and mortgage holders might eventually have got repaid in nominal terms – but the amounts they received were meaningless in comparison to the actual value of the assets that the debtors held (such as houses).

This is a nation state problem, but the profligacy of nation states has also made it YOUR problem.

Governments are by their nature unproductive - their sources of income are typically either their citizens (through taxation) or accrued via issuing liabilities against their good name (which, in a circular fashion, is actually yours). In one sense, nation states levy taxes not because they need the money – they can usually print it, after all – but in order to reassure the potential purchasers of their government debt that they are good for the money (belief, once again).

The exceptions to this tend to be the states that are the net exporters of the fundamental currency that actually enables civilisation to exist, namely energy.

So how can you protect yourself, if the conclusion is that the only likely solution to this gigantic problem is strategic inflation and currency debasement?

One option is to save whatever you can in hard and finite assets that cannot be replicated or produced with zero cost. That is, don't think you can save in government liability money.

Unfortunately, this practice has already hugely contributed to housing inequality in the UK, where, whether they know it or not, the richest among us have figured this out and keep their money not in cash but in houses.

You too should have the right to protect yourself - but I'd also like to see an alternative to a 'flight to housing' that exacerbates other social issues. Perhaps find something else. Ideally something that the government cannot confiscate when the house of cards finally comes tumbling down.

You'll likely know what I would recommend. But this is something you'll need to decide for yourself, and on behalf of your children, who will unfortunately inherit the mess that our governments and central banks have made.

Add the problem of unfunded liabilities to the mix too.

Only option is to opt out.

Which Steve Baker clip was it btw?

In our British "democracy" the Labour party wins by a "landslide" with less than 34% of the vote 🙃

If the US needs all oil sales to be in USD, and they will start wars to ensure this, why are politicians so keen to promote green energy?

A theory:

The only viable green energy is nuclear and that has been blocked. Wind and solar isn't able to truly replace oil for most uses, but it gives an excuse to use green policy to threaten and control domestic oil production - this ensures that there is still sufficient US demand for oil which helps maintain USD settlement for it.

Perhaps this is why the EU is so rabid about green energy, and why China subsidises production of solar/wind even if they don't use it much themselves.

I'd respect your vegetarianism/veganism more if you admitted that you were actually sacrificing your health for your cause

Reminder that the state NEEDS inflation

Replying to Avatar Lyn Alden

Because a lot of it is visual and measurable, and occurred within the past decade, Egypt is currently providing a useful case study in the perils of central planning.

The country over the past ten years (when current leadership took over) took on $120 billion in external debt, and also used a lot of local deficit spending, with the reasonable goal of building lots of new infrastructure, alleviating congestion with new cities, and boosting international tourism to what are some of the best beaches in the world.

But details and order matter. And an entity with a monopoly on violence has less incentive to get the details and path dependence correct, and has fewer error correction methods built in than private developers do.

So the government built a big network of roads and bridges, which helped somewhat, although many of the roads are badly designed and always delayed. They built an entire new capital city for the government and military HQ, along with business and residential districts, which nine years in is still mostly vacant. They are developing the north coast city of El Alamein, but unlike well-designed private developments (eg in El Gouna on the Red Sea), the government was heavily involved for El Alamein, did massive overbuilding with incongruent designs that will take decades to fill (by which time the buildings will be deteriorating).

Now they have chronic power outages due to insufficient power generation. They are building their first nuclear facility, but it only began in 2022 and won’t be finished until 2026 or later (probably later). Maybe they should have started that facility earlier, before their now-empty city…

The average Egyptian pays for a lot of this through currency debasement. They look around and say “yes there are new bridges and entire new cities, but it takes me more hours of work to afford a car than it did ten years ago and there are three-hour power outages each day…” Basically they get taxed in opaque ways via debasement, and don’t benefit from most of the development that they are paying for.

And while those developments might make sense if successful, the order of development, the details of development, and so forth have clearly been suboptimal.

Anyway, good morning.

I see the same thing in South Africa, including the contrast between public and private.

Your note also gives the most generous interpretation that it was all just well intentioned but incompetent. Like South Africa I'm sure a lot of the infrastructure work was done in a way to enrich a few cronies via state contracts.

Democratic Bitcoinism

Probably going to have to vote for Reform UK after reading this in their manifesto:

"We are better to adapt to warming, rather than pretend we can stop it."

Only party not virtue signalling about "Net Zero".

https://www.reformparty.uk/energy-and-environment

Replying to Avatar .

AI HAS AIDS

Oh god, just realised my LinkedIn profile has been advertising my AI & DS background 😂

I really enjoy reading ACX (Scott Alexander) - fairly orthoganal perspective to most others I follow.

https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/failure-to-replicate-anti-vaccine