https://youtu.be/UM57HhM8yV8?si=7NquUEFTsmBn8aN2
AI generated summary of the main points discussed in the video:
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Here are the major points made in the video regarding China's population:
* **China's actual population is significantly lower than the official 1.4 billion figure** [1]. The video argues it is somewhere between 300 and 400 million, not even close to 800 million [1].
* The approach to estimating China's real population involves two steps: first, rectifying the population *before* the pandemic, and second, determining the real death toll during COVID-19 [1].
**Estimates for China's Population Before the Pandemic (Pre-2020):**
* **Russian Estimates**:
* In 2018, Russians estimated China's population to be between 500 million and 800 million [1].
* A Russian expert noted China's population in 1945 was 490 million, suggesting it's impossible for it to have surged to 1.4 billion after events like the Great Leap Forward, Great Famine, Cultural Revolution, and decades of the One-Child Policy [1].
* Other Russian experts added up publicly available urban populations (280 million) and, based on a traditional 1:1 urban-rural ratio, estimated the population at around 560 million, stating it should not exceed 800 million [1].
* **Japanese Scholars' Research**: Based on China's table salt consumption, arable land, and international grain purchases, Japanese scholars concluded China's real population was between 800 million and 900 million [1].
* **Host's Own Logic/Calculation**:
* The host previously showed China's real population before the pandemic was between 695 million and 890 million [1].
* This logic compares China's population growth to India's: 35 years prior, their populations were only 270 million apart. India, a younger country with double China's official fertility rate (3 vs. 1.7), still has a smaller population [1]. [Referring to pre-2023]
* Using AI and official CCP fertility rates, the host calculated an 890 million Chinese population for 2020. However, using Dr. E Fuian's fertility rates, the population in 2020 was only 695 million [1].
* **WHO Data Collector's Estimate**: A fan of Chinese YouTuber Lee Muya, who works for the WHO, concluded China's population before the pandemic was 750 million after attempting to repeat the Russian study (though facing issues with local data availability and fabrication) [1].
* **Consensus and Host's Conservative Estimate**: Russian and Japanese studies, along with the host's calculations, overwhelmingly point to China's pre-pandemic population being between 600 million and 900 million, or around 800 million [1]. The host's conservative estimate for China's population before the pandemic is **800 million** [1].
**Estimates for COVID-19 Death Toll:**
* **WHO Data Collector's Calculation**:
* This person estimated a **430 million COVID death toll**, leading to the current population estimate of 310-320 million [1].
* **Methodology**:
* Pre-pandemic, China's Ministry of Civil Affairs reported an average of 10 million deaths annually, with 1 million per month in winter [1].
* Chinese funeral industry workload grew 8 to 10 times during COVID, not including rural burials [1].
* Monthly deaths during COVID averaged 7 million per month for the first three years (early 2020 to end of 2022), totaling **252 million deaths** [1].
* After Zero-COVID ended (late 2022 to early 2023), an additional **120 million Chinese died**, based on internal Beijing police department data (e.g., 8,000-10,000 daily hospital deaths in Beijing, 5,000 in Tianjin, extrapolated across 2,000+ cities/counties) [1].
* An additional **50 million deaths** were added for the initial surge in early 2020 [1].
* **Total COVID deaths calculated by WHO data collector**: 252 million + 120 million + 50 million = **422 million** [1].
* **Host's Critique and Further Estimation**:
* The host acknowledges the WHO data collector's numbers are hard to dispute but points out they only cover up to early 2023, missing deaths in 2024 and 2025 [1].
* The host suggests the total number of casualties may exceed 422 million and could even reach **500 million** [1].
* **Falun Gong Founder's Statement**: In early 2023, the founder of the spiritual practice Falun Gong stated that 400 million Chinese had died in the pandemic and another 100 million would die until the end of the pandemic, aligning with the 500 million figure [1].
**Current Estimation of China's Population (2024):**
* **WHO Data Collector's Estimate**: As of now, China's population is between **310 to 320 million** [1].
* **Host's Estimate**: The host's estimate for China's population right now is somewhere between **300 million (aggressive) and 400 million (conservative)** [1]. This is based on an 800 million pre-pandemic population and 400-500 million lost lives [1].
**Indirect Confirmation/Supporting Evidence:**
* A viewer's contact in Japan, well-connected in the salt industry, reported that Japan is now selling **only half the salt to China** compared to a few years ago [1].
* This indirectly confirms that China's population is about half of what it was before the pandemic, supporting the host's estimate of a population of 800 million before the pandemic now being around **400 million** [1].
Bitcoin Core has engaged in several problematic activities over the last few months.
1.
Attempting to push through contentious changes to the Bitcoin Core software without community consensus.
This includes a specific pull request (PR) to remove arbitrary limits on OP_RETURN data carrier outputs.
Samson Mow states there is "no consensus on relaxing oper limits," yet this change is being pushed through in a "fairly hostile manner," leading down a "slippery slope".
Parker Lewis also points out that Bitcoin Core is "attempting to change the policy of the Bitcoin network by fiat," or by decree.
2.
Engaging in bad faith actions and censorship by excluding qualified people from discussion.
Bitcoin Mechanic, the CTO of Ocean Mining, was banned from the Bitcoin Core GitHub discussion regarding OP_RETURN.
Adam Back agreed that blocking programmers with recent comments is a "bad look," especially given Mechanic's relevant views on policy configurability.
The rhetoric that one "must be a core dev" for their opinion to matter is criticized as "not conducive for good faith discussions to reach consensus".
Jameson Lopp's stance that opinions on social media are "irrelevant with regard to discussions in the GitHub repository" is seen as a "double standard" where one needs an "approved identity and reputation within a specific affiliation" to comment.
The overall conversation around this pull request is described as "mired in credentialism," "ivory tower condescension," and "paternalism".
3.
Unilaterally deciding to change the Bitcoin software despite community opposition.
Matthew Kratter states that Bitcoin Core "has gone completely rogue" and "unilaterally decided to change the Bitcoin software in a way that the general Bitcoin community does not support," effectively ending the debate by changing the software.
4.
Exhibiting unprofessional and unacceptable behavior related to the contentious pull request.
Samson Mow highlights several issues, including:
One developer allegedly paid another developer to submit the contentious pull request, leading to questions of "pull request laundering".
Admins locked a contentious pull request, then unlocked it to allow an "ack" (approval vote), and later deleted the "ack" after it was noticed. These behaviors are described as "absolutely insane and unacceptable and unprofessional".
5.
Gaslighting the community by claiming that existing spam filters don't work.
Despite evidence showing a high success rate of existing 83 byte spam limit filter, Bitcoin Core is pushing to remove this filter while simultaneously claiming filters are ineffective. This inconsistency leads to suspicion that the OP_RETURN filter is, in fact, working.
6.
Removing the configuration option for OP_RETURN data limits, which would force all node runners to use defaults chosen by Bitcoin Core, thereby taking away node runners' ability to decide how much data is included in their mempool. This is seen as a "paternalistic" move and a "very slippery slope" that encourages Bitcoin to be used more for data storage and less for monetary transactions.
7.
Rejecting pull requests aimed at filtering spam that bloats the UTXO set for two years, only to advocate for loosening filters now under the guise of preventing UTXO bloat. This is described as a "contradiction that is really disturbing" and suggests that some developers are "actually malicious".
8.
Bitcoin Core proponents attempting to "censor" or filter out Bitcoin Knots nodes.
After node runners began switching from Bitcoin Core to Bitcoin Knots in response to these issues, some Bitcoin Core proponents developed software to ban "currently known Bitcoin Knots nodes from connecting to your Bitcoin node". This is called "actual censorship of valid Bitcoin peers" and a "weird flex for someone claiming to support Bitcoin".
[Disclaimer: This is an LLM generated post. I served it content from several recent Matthew Kratter's Bitcoin University Youtube videos and asked the following: "List the malicious activities Bitcoin Core has engaged in over the last few months." Minor editing was necessary. I have watched all of the source videos and affirm the contents of this post.]
Shout out to Luke Miller for the picture.