Watching U.S destroy its #crypto market & natural advantage is a sight to behold! Can’t imagine what it must feel like sitting there & watching your domestic business opportunities evaporate like this. This will be one for the history books & it won’t read kindly on the U.S 🙁 End of an Empire comes to mind. 💥

I always disagreed with those experts that said Fed could never raise rates to 5%~. On short to medium term time frame given their average duration they can do what they want. After 18~months of hikes, non zero risks of a debt doom loop and with the upcoming debt ceiling negotiations I don’t believe the Fed can be or will be as hawkish in reality as bond market seems to believe. For this reason I still think this #Bitcoin rally is mid ways. Let’s see. One more face ripping move higher. BIG support just below $20k. Move above $25.5k=$33k next & blue sky $52k by summer.

How important is it for Bitcoin to support offline transactions to act as both a resiliency tool but also functional for those in rural communities?

Does #Bitcoin support offline transactions in any form? By that I mean let’s say I put 5 Bitcoins in my wallet on a phone . What’ are the tech barriers and concerns that stop me doing phone:phone transactions let’s say via Bluetooth offline and just syncing with the network when I have connectivity again? Isn’t this something we need to be more resilient?

There’s a new phrase you hear a lot “Bitcoin is Macro”. In Macro there’s a loose but meaningful belief that if you get the $ direction right, you know where everything else goes.

Along these lines I was looking at 20-60 day beta of Bitcoin to dollar. Roughly if $+1% we see Bitcoin -5%.

So if you know the expected move of Bitcoin to a move in the dollar, on any single day we can see the impact that a piece of big news should have on Bitcoin and compare this to the actual impact to gauge underlying market sentiment.

Let’s say some bad regulatory news out. Same day $ is +1%. So if Bitcoin is -3% (less than implied by $ move of-5%) it suggests bad news discounted and may suggest an underlying bullish trend, bullish positioning or read through.

If $ -1% and Bitcoin only +2% it would give a bearish read. Of course a few days of data would be better than one but you get the point. Anyone look that this? I’ve found it quite useful recently to have conviction to buy weakness despite horrible sentiment on twitter and elsewhere .

Anyone know if any good indicators on this on trading view or elsewhere?